SGM-FX insights

Gold Given the $600 or 21%+ move up from $2800 at the end of 2024, Gold has had a momentous 8 months for reasons ranging from demand driven by Central bank buying to investors placing safe haven side bets. However, last week trumped the previous 7 months in terms of whipsawing with firstly in response […]

Unfortunate That was how the Indian Foreign Ministry described POTUS’ extra 25% tariffs on Indian goods exported to the USA as a blunt instrument to prevent India buying Russian oil which indirectly funds the war in Ukraine. India is more than unlikely to find a ready replacement for the 2 million barrels of oil that […]

EU Tariffs Most people who followed the July 27 Turnberry meeting between POTUS and EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen thought that despite grumbling from Germany, France, and Greece, and subject to the EU Parliament ratifying the 15% US tariff rate that Ursula shook hands on, that was it. Not at all. First, there […]

Holcim The giant Swiss cement making company is the latest example of how failing to hedge or protect earnings from adverse exchange rate movements can hurt even the largest and most sophisticated international companies as well as those in the SME sector which operate on narrower profit margins. In Q2, Holcim saw a rise in […]

CBDCs Coming to your High Street soon: Central Bank Digital Currencies. The largest due to launch next year is the digital Euro. The Bank of England is still looking into it. Given that we have bank transfers, electronic banking, credit and debit cards and multiple payment cards the question is what will be the plus […]

Oil At a smidge below USD70, Brent oil rose sharply at the beginning of the week on the back of two principal factors: firstly, the EU committing to buy USD 750 billion of energy products from the USA as part of the 15% tariff trade deal; secondly, POTUS’ 50 day ultimatum to President Putin to […]

Greek Water Greek PM Mitsotakis is taking action on Greece’s problem of widespread water shortages brought on by climate change and increasing demand for what is an increasingly scarce water supply exacerbated by drought. A 5 pronged nationwide plan to tackle the crisis which has evidenced itself with forest fires and arid landscapes is being […]

EU Interest Rates As expected the ECB held interest rates yesterday. Unsurprising, given the August 1 deadline on the US tariffs that might see a punitive tariff rate of 30% on the EU, although talks are meant to be getting closer to a 15% rate and in sight of the finishing tape. That means that […]

UK Government Borrowing At GBP 2.7 trillion or 2,700 billion, the UK is one of the most indebted nations, but to put that in perspective the UK Government borrowing is equivalent to 96% or almost 1 year of the UK’s Gross Domestic Product. Broadly between 1975 and 2008, the percentage was between 40 and 50%. […]

US Dollar As markets mostly do after a near straight line decline of 14% up until the end of June USD has clawed back 2% since July 1. For the next couple of months it would look as if USD will consolidate further. What could spoil that? 1. Unexpected US protectionism in the shape of […]

EU Budget There’s nothing like a EUR 2 Trillion Budget to test the bonds of brotherhood binding the EU bloc to squeaking point. Yesterday, President Ursula von Der Leyen launched her increased and eye watering strategic budget which has already met what is politely termed a mixed reception by the EU Parliament as the key […]

FTSE100 With all eyes on the Westminster PM – Chancellor drama recently, or alternatively the saga of POTUS tariffs, it is easy to overlook the positive in that the FTSE is up 10% this year and has just notched up a new “big figure” and an all time high of 9000+. All too often the […]