SGM-FX insights

Independent Central Banks The concept that has served the USA and the wider world so well for more than 8 decades is being tested in respect of the Federal Reserve by POTUS and the financial world is largely so far, complacent. Distinguished economist Paul Krugman wrote an excellent piece yesterday and his conclusion, other than […]

Knock On Currency Moves Reuters conducted a survey of the largest European companies and unsurprisingly pretty much all of them are citing the strengthening EUR as having negatively impacted their results in H1. Whether it’s German telecoms or Dutch paint, the story is the same. But in another twist to the tale of tariffs and […]

532,046 That was the number of members of the Labour Party at its peak in 2019. By the end of 2024, after Sir Keir and his team had won an election and placed their stamp on the UK, that number had fallen to 333,235. This together with the flagging Conservative Party represents the widespread disillusionment […]

US Dollar The first 7 months of the year has been characterised by a weakening USD down 13% and largely prompted by both the threat and actuality of US tariffs and the damage that they will cause to the US economy. On top of that, the US Administration has been consistent in talking down the […]

Jackson Hole This week’s annual gathering of top global economists and policy makers at the Wyoming resort will be more than usually closely followed by markets. The big event is on Friday when Fed Chair Powell will speak. Mostly the expectation is that Jerome Powell will adopt a less hawkish tone and will signal the […]

UK Growth The beginning of 2025 marked 0.7% growth in Q1 and the expectation for Q2 was for the UK economy to flatline, so when growth came in at 0.3%, which is exactly the same as France, Germany, and Italy, it prompted the more impressionable market commentators to dust off their forecasts and start talking […]

Downbeat Deutschland Regular readers may recall that we reported that despite the many challenges the EU and especially Germany faced that in July with the prospect of summer holidays the June economic sentiment in Germany as reported by ZEW was bubbly if not positively effervescent at its highest level for 3 years at 52.7. The […]

Gold Given the $600 or 21%+ move up from $2800 at the end of 2024, Gold has had a momentous 8 months for reasons ranging from demand driven by Central bank buying to investors placing safe haven side bets. However, last week trumped the previous 7 months in terms of whipsawing with firstly in response […]

Unfortunate That was how the Indian Foreign Ministry described POTUS’ extra 25% tariffs on Indian goods exported to the USA as a blunt instrument to prevent India buying Russian oil which indirectly funds the war in Ukraine. India is more than unlikely to find a ready replacement for the 2 million barrels of oil that […]

EU Tariffs Most people who followed the July 27 Turnberry meeting between POTUS and EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen thought that despite grumbling from Germany, France, and Greece, and subject to the EU Parliament ratifying the 15% US tariff rate that Ursula shook hands on, that was it. Not at all. First, there […]

Holcim The giant Swiss cement making company is the latest example of how failing to hedge or protect earnings from adverse exchange rate movements can hurt even the largest and most sophisticated international companies as well as those in the SME sector which operate on narrower profit margins. In Q2, Holcim saw a rise in […]

CBDCs Coming to your High Street soon: Central Bank Digital Currencies. The largest due to launch next year is the digital Euro. The Bank of England is still looking into it. Given that we have bank transfers, electronic banking, credit and debit cards and multiple payment cards the question is what will be the plus […]