SGM-FX insights

US Dollar The first 7 months of the year has been characterised by a weakening USD down 13% and largely prompted by both the threat and actuality of US tariffs and the damage that they will cause to the US economy. On top of that, the US Administration has been consistent in talking down the […]

Jackson Hole This week’s annual gathering of top global economists and policy makers at the Wyoming resort will be more than usually closely followed by markets. The big event is on Friday when Fed Chair Powell will speak. Mostly the expectation is that Jerome Powell will adopt a less hawkish tone and will signal the […]

UK Growth The beginning of 2025 marked 0.7% growth in Q1 and the expectation for Q2 was for the UK economy to flatline, so when growth came in at 0.3%, which is exactly the same as France, Germany, and Italy, it prompted the more impressionable market commentators to dust off their forecasts and start talking […]

Downbeat Deutschland Regular readers may recall that we reported that despite the many challenges the EU and especially Germany faced that in July with the prospect of summer holidays the June economic sentiment in Germany as reported by ZEW was bubbly if not positively effervescent at its highest level for 3 years at 52.7. The […]

Gold Given the $600 or 21%+ move up from $2800 at the end of 2024, Gold has had a momentous 8 months for reasons ranging from demand driven by Central bank buying to investors placing safe haven side bets. However, last week trumped the previous 7 months in terms of whipsawing with firstly in response […]

Unfortunate That was how the Indian Foreign Ministry described POTUS’ extra 25% tariffs on Indian goods exported to the USA as a blunt instrument to prevent India buying Russian oil which indirectly funds the war in Ukraine. India is more than unlikely to find a ready replacement for the 2 million barrels of oil that […]

EU Tariffs Most people who followed the July 27 Turnberry meeting between POTUS and EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen thought that despite grumbling from Germany, France, and Greece, and subject to the EU Parliament ratifying the 15% US tariff rate that Ursula shook hands on, that was it. Not at all. First, there […]

Holcim The giant Swiss cement making company is the latest example of how failing to hedge or protect earnings from adverse exchange rate movements can hurt even the largest and most sophisticated international companies as well as those in the SME sector which operate on narrower profit margins. In Q2, Holcim saw a rise in […]

CBDCs Coming to your High Street soon: Central Bank Digital Currencies. The largest due to launch next year is the digital Euro. The Bank of England is still looking into it. Given that we have bank transfers, electronic banking, credit and debit cards and multiple payment cards the question is what will be the plus […]

Oil At a smidge below USD70, Brent oil rose sharply at the beginning of the week on the back of two principal factors: firstly, the EU committing to buy USD 750 billion of energy products from the USA as part of the 15% tariff trade deal; secondly, POTUS’ 50 day ultimatum to President Putin to […]

Greek Water Greek PM Mitsotakis is taking action on Greece’s problem of widespread water shortages brought on by climate change and increasing demand for what is an increasingly scarce water supply exacerbated by drought. A 5 pronged nationwide plan to tackle the crisis which has evidenced itself with forest fires and arid landscapes is being […]

EU Interest Rates As expected the ECB held interest rates yesterday. Unsurprising, given the August 1 deadline on the US tariffs that might see a punitive tariff rate of 30% on the EU, although talks are meant to be getting closer to a 15% rate and in sight of the finishing tape. That means that […]