SGM-FX insights

Chancellor’s Treat   There have been mixed reactions to Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s latest spending plans. Those reactions, of course, have been driven by each individual’s own stakes and thus rewards from the spending decisions made. The Chancellor even received condemnation from the Speaker of the House of Commons for swerving parliamentary procedure and declaring most […]

Get Used To It   That was what Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio advised his customers when asked about how they should deal with higher food prices. As regular readers will know, commodity basics such as corn, coffee, palm oil, sugar and soya beans have all been rising in price and are at a 10 […]

Whipsaw   If you were allowed to use your phone at the petrol pumps and happened to be reading this mail then the topic of this briefing, the cost of fuel, might hit home particularly hard. Although, let’s face it, with the queues, horns and army operated delivery tanker queuing up behind you, you might […]

Another Round?   Sterling has staged a considerable recovery since trading at levels that rivalled December 2020 (pre-Brexit agreement; post-lockdown reversal induced) lows. There was concern within the market that a break of key technical levels in GBPUSD as well as in other risk-sensitive Sterling crosses, could spur further losses down towards the low 1.30s […]

Reshuffle   Ahead of the Conservative party conference next month, the Prime Minister has pursued a cabinet reshuffle. Whilst Boris Johnson has maintained strong support amongst his own party, divisions within his cabinet have been evident amidst rising Covid-19 cases and a taxation hike. There were several changes within major offices of state. Liz Truss […]

Vax on, Vax off   The relative calm regarding Covid-19 in the northern hemisphere has allowed economies to open up and realise the potential growth stored up over months of lockdowns and socio-economic restrictions. A good part of the true or at least the attributed root of the ability to open societies and economies once […]

Tax   The technical motion presented to the House of Commons yesterday has been passed by 319 votes to 248. The initiative will see the government move to impose a 1.25% hike in national insurance contributions and taxation on dividend incomes. The impact of taxation upon currency valuations is at present difficult to isolate and […]

A hawk for a hawk makes GBP rise   You may recall that the last Bank of England decision caused some upset within GBP crosses. It was the first decision in quite a while when the Committee was reduced to an eight-strong vote rather than its usual nine members, but it was specifically the absence […]

Deflated   Moving into yesterday’s data release, markets were expecting July inflation to be read in the United Kingdom well in excess of 2%. The consensus forecast was 2.3% versus a previous figure of 2.5% in June. Both headline and core inflation came in far softer than expectations at 2% and 1.8% respectively. The reaction […]

GBP Call   GBP has fallen in a controlled and predictable fashion since its peak right at the beginning of June. The rejection of tighter monetary policy at the bank of England and approaching technical resistance levels north of 1.40 on GBPUSD sealed the short-term fate for Sterling. Now approaching a fragile but extant price […]

It’s still coming home..   But not for the three lions on a shirt. Instead, one line on a chart: retail sales. The release from the latest coronavirus lockdown saw investors, consumers and businesses alike participate in the economy in a way they hadn’t since the pandemic begun. The explosion of demand into markets from […]

Billy No Mates   GBP had been well supported over the past two weeks for two major reasons. One which continues to be true is that the economic fundamentals of the UK economy provide a palatable backdrop for GBP. The other, partially as a result of the former reality but also in anticipation of a […]