SGM-FX insights

Thrown under the bus   Do you remember when Boris Johnson told the world that he likes to build models of busses in his spare time? The ‘confession’ offered during the televised interview with talkRADIO was, the daily mail conjectured, a PR spin to draw attention away from the referendum red bus that brandished the […]

Borderline   The best way to solve a problem in politics, almost without exception, is to present the simplest form of the idea possible to maximise the expectation of success that each voter carries. What’s not a particularly grand idea in most scenarios, and certainly not when attempting to do something quickly, is to redefine […]

Gladiators, are you ready?   I’m sure BBC Parliament has never had quite so many viewers as it enjoyed yesterday. Markets were fixated as usual with the political developments of the day in their pursuit to value domestic equity, currency and fixed income assets, but this time the population also turned to the Commons. Johnson, […]

Top Trumps   As eagle eyed purveyors of the foreign exchange market I’m sure each of you reading this would have been keeping a watchful eye over the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank in the United States and UK inflation yesterday. In fact, both events seem like they might go down as the two most important […]

All eyes on Oil Price Today   The market is expected to send WTI oil up by $5-10 in the wake of the Houthi rebels disrupting Saudi oil supplies amounting to approximately 5% of global oil supplies. What is rattling traders more is the US assertion that the attack in the early hours of Saturday […]

Volfefe   The President of the United States of America needn’t exercise all of his 280-character quota (including spaces) to upset financial markets. In fact deploying the full arsenal of a tweet might be too crass for the reserved and presidential billionaire. However, his contentious Twitter account “@realDonaldTrump” moves interest rate; currency and equity markets […]

Markets, GBP and Brexit   So much to write about so many different aspects of the political maelstrom in which UK plc is currently being buffeted, but in the end it comes down to just three potential outcomes:  1. NoDeal Exit. 2. Exit with a Deal. 3. No Exit.  Such is the frustration caused by […]

GBP   This week unkind wags have renamed the Great British Pound the Great British Peso in a reference to the gyrations of GBP which are more akin to an emerging market currency than a mainstream one. Those of us with longer memories view the current 1-2 cent moves on the day with less trepidation, […]

Overreaction   Yesterday saw the implied probabilities of a no deal exit from the European Union rise within betting and foreign exchange markets. The source of the threat stemmed from Boris’ approved request to Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament. Translation: make lawmakers come back to work later than planned to prevent legislation legally blocking a […]

Brussels Sprouts Little   Sure, Johnson met Merkel in Berlin yesterday but you try and make a pun suggesting political frustration and Germany’s capital city! Suggestions welcome! Now, in the real world this week, Sterling has been pushed higher (Monday), dragged lower (Tuesday and Wednesday) on whims of reports of progress and then frustration on the […]

Recession?   About a decade ago you could pick up virtually any newspaper (with perhaps the exception of the Daily Star or the Sun) and see the phrase Double Dip Recession or equivalent brandished on the front page. Whether it was accompanied by a vitriolic attack on the incumbent Conservative government, a backward-looking blame on […]

GBP and What is the Outlook over the next 3 months?   A number of our clients both private and corporate are asking us what the outlook for GBP is with the differing probabilities of outcomes on Brexit: No Deal is given a probability of 30%, a Deal by 31 October 15%, a delay to the […]