SGM-FX insights

Goodbye and good riddance!   If you hadn’t noticed, the United Kingdom has left the European Union. You could be forgiven for not having noticed because by design of the Withdrawal Agreement, nothing changes until the transition period is concluded. However, at the formal and legal level the departure has taken place: the UK’s flag […]

Judging by appearances   Not necessarily the right approach: look at penguins when they are on land (which is after all where we see them) whether it be Yellow eyed(New Zealand), Galapagos(Galapagos), Humboldt(Peru) or Fairy(Australia); all these species have adapted to different climates and environments which is quite something given that they are built like […]

Who are you?   0.7% in one day is a pretty decent rally for the Pound. Sterling currently sits at 2 week highs against the US Dollar and yesterday GBP reached 2020 highs against the Euro. But what brought us here might surprise you: Confederation of British Industry survey data! This piece of soft data […]

Cheaper Rates – Cheaper Sterling   At December’s monetary policy decision the Bank of England chose to hold interest rates steady at 0.75%. But the decision was not without dissent and division within the authority’s core, the Monetary Policy Committee. At this meeting two members, Haskell and Saunders echoed their previous dovish warnings that borrowing […]

Where does GBP go in 2020?   According to a poll of 65 FX Strategists the answer is that it will appreciate 3% versus the USD. Having spent a lifetime in currency markets, I have to tell you that this is going to be wrong. The 3% number is the average of what those FX […]

10, 9, 8…   11 hours ahead of the London time zone is that of Sydney’s. That means that shortly after we conclude our shortened trading day this New Years Eve, the impressive fireworks display on the other side of the world will be underway. 16 hours (presumably less 10 seconds) from the start of […]

One step forward..   Two steps back. The Pound at least is on track to follow this frustrating course. Having rallied after the general election result became clear, a combination of profit taking and renewed exit uncertainty has caused the Pound to have lost a lot of value. Despite the election result and immediate reaction, […]

Fake News – Old News?   In the early hours of this morning it became clear that Donald Trump, serving US President since 2017, had been impeached. From this side of the Atlantic the term “impeachment” seems daunting and we might assume that those who fall victim to it must surely be condemned to an […]

UK Markets and the practice of Setting Price Objectives   Concern that a hard exit from Europe might be worse than a soft exit hit GBP despite the release that the number in employment rose by 24,000 in the quarter to 31/10 taking the employed to 32.8 million and a rate of 76.2% which is […]

Markets   When the UK Election exit poll came out at 10pm ,there was a flurry of activity and the phones lit up across the room at SGM-FX headquarters. GBP rallied sharply across the board before drifting back in the hour or so afterwards. Since then, GBP has given up further ground but remains significantly […]

Rough in the Diamond   The day of Johnson and Corbyn’s reckoning is upon us. As the polls opened at 7AM this morning Sterling sat atop an 8-month high against the US Dollar having gained almost 1% in the final week of the general election campaign. However, as voters head to the polls today, the […]

What If: UK Equities Market post General Election   The main theme of your questions in the past two weeks has been what might happen in the Equity market after the election. So with four days until we get the result, we are going to have a go which is based on what the markets […]