SGM-FX insights

EU Economy For the second month running the EU economy contracted slightly. As ever a patchwork performance notable for Germany improving while France put in a particularly weak contribution. Worrying for France as well as the EU is that the outlook for France is not bright. No wonder the ECB was so keen to get […]

CINEA9 The Climate Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency of the European Commission abbreviated to CINEA9 has signed an agreement with Societa Stretta di Messina. What that means is that the dream of a bridge connecting Sicily to the mainland of Italy is a step nearer. There have been a few false dawns over the years: […]

US Interest Burden At $882 billion in the year to end September which equates to $2.4 billion a day or 3.06% of US GDP, the USA is staggering beneath the weight of just servicing its debt before even contemplating reducing it. As we have remarked previously and as picked up in Saturday’s Financial Times, neither […]

Swiss Ingenuity It started with the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne or EPFL who were approached by start up company Sun-Ways which has developed a removable system of solar panels that can be laid on top of railway tracks over which trains can pass. Removable panels are important given the need for maintenance […]

Advance Australian Fair As the national anthem goes. In Asset Management land, more long positions have been built up in the Aussie Dollar than at any time since 2021. The logic is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates high and that China’s economic stimulus will drive regional demand. After a run […]

Commodities  With Gold at USD 2676 and Brent Crude at USD 79.04 there are no clearer indicators that world markets are fully focused on the regional crisis encompassing Iran/USA/Israel/Gaza/Lebanon/Yemen this weekend. Unsurprisingly USD is back to its strongest levels for some weeks against all other major currencies. EUR/USD 1.0935 A3 For UK readers this has […]

November 5 In the unlikely event that apart from being Guy Fawkes Night, November 5th is also the day when Americans cast their votes for their next President has passed you by, you may be cheered to learn of who the UK’s Channel Four have lined up to commentate as the results pour in: Stormy […]

Chinese Tariffs When the EU decided to impose tariffs and restrictions on Chinese Electric Vehicles entering the EU this summer, there was little thought about the law of unintended consequences. That came home yesterday when China retaliated by requiring Brandy imports into China to be accompanied by security deposits of between 34 and 39%. Martell, […]

EU One of the unspoken questions arising from Mario Draghi’s no punches report on the EU is: what is the EU for and where does it want to go? The further integration topic is not addressed let alone solved, since the mood music is against greater integration unless it is driven by the fear factor […]

Bank of England In an interview with the Guardian newspaper, Governor Bailey made it clear that Central Banks could afford to cut interest rates more sharply. Markets correctly interpreted that statement as him preparing the way for cuts at pretty much every Bank of England MPC meeting for the next 6 months until they reach […]

Fifty Up Exactly 50 years ago today I set out on my career in the City of London. Many of the men whom I worked with wore bowler hats and smoked pipes. Discount House men wore morning dress and top hats. Everyone wore two or three piece suits and black shoes. If you wore brown […]

EU Rate Cut With EU core inflation now reported to be 1.7% led by both France with inflation of 1.5.% and Spain at 1.6%, expectations are now running high for an ECB rate cut of 0.25% on October 17. The EU inflation target is 2% so on that measure alone the market is right in […]