SGM-FX insights

US Dollar A further lurch upwards for USD yesterday morning as French politics affected the EUR and the prospect of Japan’s first female Prime Minister as well as the accompanying uncertainty weaken JPY. GBP also feeling the effects of that strong USD. The USD/JPY at 152.80 also in uncomfortable territory for Japan. EUR/JPY 177.41. China Youth […]

US Dollar For differing reasons USD is having a strong week both against the Japanese Yen and the EUR. Both currencies are weakened by political headwinds but that is where the similarities end. France is rather more influencing the EUR due to worries over its debt and its resistance to getting it under control. Japan […]

US Government Shutdown In the past 50 years the US Government has shut down 21 times the longest of which was in 2018 which was for 5 weeks – and that to remind you was during Trump 1. Why might this time be different? This time POTUS has stated his determination to take the opportunity […]

Reparation Loan 3.5 years in, and the EU is gradually reaching agreement on how to assist Ukraine financially – well almost. Admittedly, the principle of seizing a countries’ frozen assets is ground-breaking, but so was the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the seizing of land and assets. In case you are unaware, the proposal […]

A Fork in The Road? Well that was UK PM SirKeir’s “rallying” cry to the UK electorate: it’s me or Reform. Hmm. In a bit of a mixed day for the UK government with some poor Q2 UK economic growth figures at 0.3% after a better Q1 at 0.7%. Then keynote speeches from the UK […]

UK Gilt Yields Why is the cost of Government borrowing and thus consumer debt higher in the UK than in Europe? Fear not, this is not a Chancellor Reeves political rant, although the markets are yet to be convinced 15 months in that she has mastered her brief; rather it is the following: persistently high inflation […]

EU Chamber of Commerce China Chamber Supremo Jens Eskelund gave a speech this week which made it all too apparent that China is directing its trade exports away from tariff heavy USA to tariff light EU. At the same time, China is making it much harder for foreign businesses to operate in China. That imbalance […]

Centre for Policies Studies This UK think tank has had a good amount of egg on its corporate visage this week due to leader of Reform Nigel Farage using one of the CPFS’ own statistics when he made a speech saying that GBP234 billion could be saved by excluding migrants from benefits. As emotive and […]

iPhone 17 In the last few days there have been quite a few posts about how many days work it takes to earn enough to buy an iPhone17 across the countries of the world with the subtext that life is just not fair. Broadly, Western Europe is quickest and Africa is longest. Rather than dwell on […]

UK Quantitative Tightening It’s hard enough making tough calls on whether to stick to a GBP100 billion bond selling program or not when debating with fellow members of the Monetary Policy Committee, but for Governor Bailey things have got a lot trickier with not 1 but no less than 4 ex MPC members calling for […]

British Pound Despite the efforts of the press to write the story that UK PM SirKeir is on his last legs, Sterling on a 2 month high is unruffled so is not taking that story seriously. Damning with the headline “Lack of Replacement Options Keeps Starmer Safe-For Now” was Bloomberg yesterday which is not exactly […]

UK Growth Normally when UK Government figures come in exactly in line with forecasts it is a matter for self congratulation among economists and last week’s July Growth figures were no exception: the expectation was for Zero growth and indeed growth for the UK economy in July was Zero. There is a snag here: apart […]