SGM-FX insights

China At this week’s National People’s Congress, the 2024 economic targets for the People’s Republic of China were announced. Last year GDP growth officially came in at 5.2% but outside China estimates put it at 1-2%; however while it was acknowledged this week that there had been some issues with the Chinese economy in 2023, […]

Cocoa The world’s cocoa crop available for consumption has shrunk by 11% in the past year as a result of a combination of poor weather and supply disruption. The move in the NY ICE Cocoa contract is a clear reflection of what that means in real world terms: in March 2023 Cocoa stood at $2586 […]

Data resumes The start of this week was particularly data light. With most major pairs still trading within recent ranges, markets are missing a catalyst in inject volatility. That may be a welcome scenario but with the data calendar becoming increasingly dense over the coming trading sessions, let’s take a look at some potential risks. […]

Oil With further Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and freight rates pushed higher by the continuing Israel-Hamas war, unsurprisingly oil prices having risen on Monday continued to push upwards yesterday. The only thing keeping them from rising further is the prospect of President Biden’s sponsored ceasefire rumoured to take effect next Monday.Brent $ 82.70 […]

British Pound There really was something for everyone in Bank of England Governor Bailey’s comments yesterday. Firstly he said that the BoE was comfortable with the market’s view of the decline in UK interest rates -meaning one presumes both on extent and timing. Then he followed it up by saying that the UK labour market […]

EU Commission Instead of November’s EU growth forecast of 1.2%, the EU Commission has revised back its prediction to 0.8% for the growth in the gross domestic product of the 20 countries. The 2025 year however will see growth of 1.5%. Back to 2024, it is difficult for the EU bloc to grow much when […]

Germany With the German IFO or Business Climate Index down from 90.10 a year ago to its current level of 85.20, Germany’s business leaders are more realistic about the outlook for Europe’s largest economy than their political leaders. Chancellor Scholz wisely passed the speech making duties yesterday to one of his cohorts who managed with […]

Bank of England To absolutely no-one’s surprise the Bank of England left rates as they were yesterday at 5.25% and Governor Bailey said they needed more data before cutting rates. Critics of the UK Monetary Policy setting unit will soon be accusing the Bank of being too slow to raise rates when inflation took off […]

Eurozone At the beginning of 2023 the ECB forecast was for the Eurozone to grow by 0.5%: hardly earth shaking but in the circumstances following the interest rate rises and the rocketing energy costs in 2022 and not at all to overlook the war in Ukraine, understandable. With no sense of schadenfreude -or the enjoyment […]

Stock check I know, I know. The new year celebrations are still so close in the rear-view mirror how could a whole month have possibly passed? Well, it almost has, and the passing of month end tomorrow will also bring with it new forces into the market. As far as seasonal effects are concerned, January […]

ECB President As predicted, Mme Lagarde, President Christine Lagarde yesterday stuck to her existing line that it was all much too early to talk about interest rate cuts in the Eurozone. The market or rather 60% of those polled are holding out for the first such rate cut occurring in April. Maybe that 60% should […]

Question Without wanting to sound alarmist the question is whether markets have factored in the geo political risks present due to the conflicts in Eastern Europe and the twin conflicts in the Middle East which are overlaid by the vast number of general elections scheduled for 2024. Maybe a better way to express the question is […]