SGM-FX insights

Currencies on the Move USD up due to Switzerland cutting its rates again and a fall in GBP after the widely expected announcement yesterday lunchtime by the Bank of England of no change contained wording that the market has taken as a promise to cut in August. All that plus the ongoing France debt and […]

British Pound Somewhat in the doldrums as the market awaited this morning’s inflation figures and tomorrow’s interest rate decision. Truth be told, it is the inflation figure that is keenly awaited rather than the rate decision which is not expected to result in any move by the Bank of England. GBP/USD 1.2680. Reform UK Listening […]

US Jobs With Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stating that the US jobs market is now back to where it was 5 years ago ie prior to the Pandemic, it is all too easy to accept his word for it; except while there are 1.2 job openings for every 1 job seeker which is the […]

Chinese Electric Vehicles When the news of the EU slapping additional tariffs on imports of Chinese EVs from the current level of 10% this week, there was a sense of inevitability but not a widespread appreciation of the quantum: some Chinese EV imports will attract an additional tariff of over 38%. China needless to say […]

UK Election Landslide As we are being told that it is game over for PM Rishi Sunak, it is worth taking a look as to what that would mean for markets with an incoming Labour Government for the first time for 15 years with a large majority and an untested cadre of top leaders. Deep […]

Vigilance, Commitment and Perseverance Those are the requirements from ECB President Christine Lagarde for Europe to win the fight against inflation. What is conspicuously missing is an indication of the likely timing for the next cut in EUR interest rates, but it will not be at the time of the next ECB meeting in July. […]

ECB As was widely expected, the European Central Bank duly cut its deposit rate by 25bps from 4.00 to 3.75% yesterday lunchtime. Despite inflation being forecast to remain above the key target rate of 2.0% well into 2025 and currently standing at 2.2%, the ECB went ahead with the President, Mme Lagarde strictly pronouncing at […]

European Elections Traditionally European voters are decided on how to cast their votes well in advance of polling day, right? Wrong: in most cases and for example while worth looking at Malta where only 5% make up their minds in the last few days, at the other end of the scale in the Netherlands where […]

British Pound As the main global economies reported on inflation last week, analysts are drawing some high level conclusions: inflation remains stubborn which reduces the probability of the number of rate cuts this year expected three months ago. Consumer sentiment remains strong in the USA. Europe has declared that it is not constrained by other […]

Currency Volatility Recently we wrote about the possibility of market volatility arising from the elections and their outcomes that will take place around the world over the next 6 months. Looking at the DB Index of FX Volatility which currently stands at 6.3, it is more than worth noting that the 5 year average is […]

EU Elections With hard right French candidate Marine Le Pen and centre right German Ursula Von der Leyen vying for the position of being seen as the unifying right wing EU parliamentary candidate , it is Italy’s Giorgia Meloni who is being touted as the queen maker and who will determine the composition of a […]

Vice President Rather like those riderless horses in the Grand National that gallop over the fences alongside horses with jockeys aboard, Nikki Haley despite having abandoned her nomination bid for the Republican presidential candidacy, is still garnering 20% of Republican votes. Now however NH while falling short of endorsing her ex rival President Trump, has […]