SGM-FX insights

Poland June 2025 will go down as a milestone for the energy sector in Poland as it was the first month that renewable energy overtook fossil fuels as a proportion of Poland’s total energy requirements. Poland is one of the highest emitting countries only behind China, Kuwait, South Africa, and Kazakhstan and despite coal consumption […]

Sterling No sooner had the financial press written that Sterling was on the skids due to the Chancellor being on the way out, than PM Starmer woke up to the need for some TLC for his beleaguered Chancellor and executed a handbrake turn to administer some gruesome bedside cheer to the apparently on life support […]

Big Girls Don’t Cry A bond market tantrum and one of the sharpest one day sell offs in Sterling for several years appear to have been catalysed by the Chancellor’s appearance in PMQs yesterday. First: the back story. This Labour government has faced some embarrassment in recent weeks trying to get its welfare bill through […]

EU Inflation With the ECB annual symposium meeting in sunny Sintra, Portugal, inflation is very much on President Lagarde’s mind ; that is because it is showing signs of rising with the monthly inflation rate showing an increase of 0.3% and that presages a break above the target 2% rate just as she and her colleagues […]

Next level EURUSD has managed a relatively smooth ascent to its current levels, around 1.18. That is despite significant resistance levels, most notably around 1.17. A large collection of option strike prices gathered around this key level and the price history of the pair shows us its significance. Sustained closes above this level since last […]

Gold With Gold accounting for the second highest proportion of Central Bank reserves after the USD and the mood music shifting to it assuming a greater influence on future reserves management, it is worth looking at the numbers behind that. In the 1960s, Central Banks held the highest amount historically of 38,000 tons of gold. […]

US Dollar Markets not liking POTUS pontificating on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy on Wednesday, and less still on his view about the competence or otherwise of Chairman Powell. Given the past few weeks, the betting is that Powell’s time is over either being replaced or having a Trump nominee second guessing him but […]

A weaker Dollar: Trump vs. Powell The Dollar continued to lose ground yesterday as the truce between Israel and Iran appeared to continue to hold. There has been a noticeable return to focus upon macro and monetary influences in major currency pairs. Yesterday, Fed Chair Jay Powell provided his semi-annual monetary policy report before the […]

NATO This week sees the 32 member countries of NATO convening in The Hague for the annual meeting which this time unsurprisingly is going to attract rather more in the way of news coverage than it has in previous years. The ECFR or the European Council of Foreign Relations has just completed a poll of […]

Whiplash A highly volatile start to yesterday’s trading session saw a flight to safety in markets. Despite the Dollar having lost much of its appeal as a safe haven lately, there was still an identifiable USD bid prior to and during the European open. We have identified recently how markets have clearly differentiated between general […]

Markets Once again, markets were wrong footed over the weekend by POTUS, who had stated that he would decide in 2 weeks whether to bomb Iran. That 2 weeks turned out to be 2 days. With Iran talking to Europe’s leaders over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland markets relaxed and in particular the oil price […]

Bank of England As expected, the Monetary Policy committee voted 6:3 to leave rates unchanged – for the avoidance of doubt that sizeable bloc of 3 voted to cut interest rates yesterday. That split reflects the dilemma faced by the Committee and the UK perfectly: growth is sluggish after a fairly decent 0.7% uptick in […]