SGM-FX insights

US Dollar With Chairman Jerome Powell’s “the time has come” speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming USA the direction for USD in the next four months is down versus GBP, EUR and JPY. So far so easy in the fraught game of FX forecasting, but it would seem that Chair Powell has concluded that US interest […]

Enough Labour Already! And no, I’m not talking about UK politics here. Despite the new UK government attracting significant attention in markets and the press ahead of the awaited/feared Autumn budget, this briefing is about the labour market. This week holds in store a plethora of US labour market data which is likely the biggest […]

Business friendly European countries There are over 24 million Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in Europe and collectively they employ 85 million people. The countries rated as being the most friendly or hospitable to new businesses are Ireland, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Rachel Reeves’ Budget on October 31st will determine whether the […]

German Parliamentary Elections Maybe not something to set the readers’ pulses racing but as an indication of the way that the tide is turning when it comes to German opinion on immigration, Sunday’s elections in Saxony and Thuringia in Eastern Germany will likely see the Alternative for Germany, hard right party top the polls. Chancellor […]

A few billion shy At the start of the year the majority of financial market practitioners wouldn’t be able to tell you what Nvidia was. Today it is almost a household name. Nvidia is a company who has found itself as one of the key stocks in the world this year. Arguably the most significant […]

Germany The post WW2 economic much lauded miracle that was Germany is at odds with 2024 Germany which managed a 0.2% increase in GDP in Q1 but fell by 0.1% in Q2. That means that in Q2 Germany has slid to the foot of the table with USA at the other end at +2.8% with […]

The time has come These are words the market likely wanted but hadn’t expected to be uttered by the Fed Chair Jay Powell last week. Speaking at Jackson Hole, the Chair adopted the more typical candid tone that the symposium has been known to foster. He suggested that the direction of adjustment was obvious leaving […]

Jackson Hole At the world’s central bankers’ forum there is nothing bigger than today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. What he says about a) Crushing inflation and b) the US employment market will precede his justification for signalling an interest rate cut which in turn will educate what the world can expect for economic […]

Eurozone Yesterday EU inflation came in at 2.6% for the year to end July up from 2.5% to end June. Hardly enough to frighten the horses but the market is all too aware of ECB President Lagarde’s comments regarding inflation in the last few months. On that basis the conclusion is that EU interest rate […]

Same place, wrong time That’s right, the time has come once again where the world’s business, academic and governance elites descend on Jackson Hole. Over the past decade, it has been asked whether such conferences have a place in today’s world. Where all economies face by and large the same problems, the idea of having […]

Volatility Good news and less good news. As we have written recently the Vix or Volatility Index was trading in the high teens before the recent market turmoil on the back of Japan raising interest rates, USA not raising rates and a poor US unemployment number. Then the Vix shot up to 65 before plummeting […]

UK GDP It may not suit the narrative of the UK’s naysayers and doomsters, but Q2 UK GDP showed +0.6%. Apart from being good news for UK plc it almost certainly will dampen the enthusiasm for the Bank of England’s MPC to cut rates again immediately. That in turn strengthens the case for GBP to […]