SGM-FX insights

May 1 and the Markets   Here we are on Day 122 with 244 Days to go in 2020 so exactly one third of the way through the year. On February 17 a mere 74 days ago WTI Oil traded at $53. And now it is $17. Gold at present just over $1700. The Dow […]

Bears   Last night’s price action was tumultuous. Asian and US trading sessions are normally characterised by widespread, sluggish price moves and limited volume. It’s unsurprising given that some 80% of foreign exchange sales and trading takes place in Europe and the lion’s share of that in London. However, when serious geopolitical or economic events […]

Decoupling   Over the weekend (apparently), we learnt who the king and queen of Winter love island ‘19/‘20 would be. I can only tell you their names by googling it. So I won’t pretend to be a fountain of knowledge on the subject and allow you to make your own searches. One thing I can […]

Cushty   There have been times since he took over the FED presidency from Janet Yellen that Jay Powell’s job looked unenviable. October last year, for example, when the chairman had to calm a liquidity drought using severe repo operations, must’ve been a particularly stressful time for Mr Powell. The minutes released from the FOMC’s […]

Hydrogen: it’s back and this time it’s different…and it’s green   Older readers will recall the Zepellin, Hindenburg that unfortunately exploded on May 6 1937 in New Jersey killing 36 of the 97 passengers. Now hydrogen filled airships are making a come back as firstly they are green and secondly due to improvements in technology […]

Loonyness   This week brought the “news” that Canadian real estate has been the beneficiary of the Harry and Meghan circus moving to Vancouver. And what was the evidence for this? The answer is that hits on the Rightmove site have increased by 70% in the past month: incontrovertible proof! Here at SGM-FX we scoff […]

Kung Hei Fat Choy   As we embark on the Year of the Rat, a very happy new year to our Chinese readers. Remy Cointreau is hoping that the coronavirus does not stop the huge Chinese drinking market from quaffing their cognac as well as The Botanist Gin and METAXA Greek brandy which also form […]

There’s no business like shoe business   Reassuring to learn that even the Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffett occasionally( very occasionally) gets it wrong. Back in 1993: he paid $433 million for a shoe company named Dexter Shoes. Quickly he realised that he had bought a dud as its shoe product was being undercut by […]

Signed, sealed, not delivered   A trade deal is done between the US and China: call the IMF to tell them to change global growth forecasts; let emerging market currencies rally at the expense of overvalued safe-havens! Sadly not.   Whilst Trump didn’t give markets any last minute surprises by refusing to sign the document […]

Global Bank Shares   Looking at the net movement over the past 10 years there is a mixed picture: Broadly the USA has done best; Bank of America +1066%; JP Morgan +756%; Wells Fargo +505%. Europeans the worst Deutsche -595, Intesa -11% and Unicredit -86%. But having said that, ING +332%, KBC +742% and Skan […]

Fun while it lasted   The flight to safety and risk-off fire sale sparked by the events following the assassination order of Iranian General Soleimani seem to have been erased by markets as we open in Europe this morning. Cable (GBPUSD) trades almost exactly in line with where it did this time last week despite […]

China and USA: It’s not just trade…   With the so called Phase One of the Trade Deal in place since the end of 2019, negotiators on both sides are turning their attention to the financial war between the two nations. For those who have not appreciated this, there are 172 Chinese companies listed on […]