SGM-FX insights

Trump School of Virology   When the President tested positive for Coronavirus markets struggled to price in the potential ramifications. Volatility rose and price signals were far from smooth with the US Dollar eventually rising in a safe-haven bid. The market significance of the President’s hospitalisation is exacerbated by the looming presidential election and any […]

US Dollar   Back in the 1990’s the Japanese Yen’s strength based on Japan’s trade position with the USA and the flows of capital inwards to the USA to fund its ballooning deficit, marked the likely direction for the US Dollar versus the other major traded currencies: the GBP, German Deutschmark and Swiss Franc. Until […]

Month & Quarter End   In markets, ends matter. Whether the end in question be the end of a working day, a month, quarter and especially calendar or financial year, it brings with it strong underlying trade flows that usually produce both price volatility and significant valuation adjustments. The mechanics of it are extremely simple. […]

US Dollar   Two weeks ago the teenage scribblers as Nigel Lawson referred to market analysts when he was UK Chancellor, had written the USD off and were writing its obituary as the world’s store of value and leading reserve currency. With the USD almost 3% stronger against EUR now, those same analysts are a […]

Don’t hold your breath   The scenario in which the Federal Reserve Bank in the United States forecasts no interest rate hikes for the best part of half a decade and the market interprets that as mildly hawkish and buys the US Dollar might seem fairly alien. It might seem so because it is! Overnight […]

Holiday Today   In London today is of course the late summer bank holiday. In the USA it is both National Eat Outside Day and National Bacon Day and yesterday was National Toasted Marshmallow Day. These are new kinds of celebrations for most non Americans but as non historical or religious based are at least […]

Mocking Jay     Federal Reserve President Jay Powell will speak today at the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium. The event has already taken its toll on global markets and the US Dollar in particular with cautious words from Kansas City and Richmond Fed presidents weighing heavy on the greenback. The last Federal Reserve meeting that […]

A is for..     A LOT of Money. In an otherwise tranquil and unremarkable market environment yesterday, US technology stock Apple managed to secure a $2 Trillion Dollar valuation. The company known for making iPhones and other such sought after gadgets has one of the healthiest profit margins on the Nasdaq, routinely registering in […]

Order   The United States needed a fifth round of fiscal stimulus. Much like the very virus the economic support is in place to stave away; if you cut the course of antibiotics mid-way through the infection the virus will win and the patient will deteriorate. Unemployment benefits for American workers had expired last month, […]

Australia   With their budget deficit already at a record at A$86 Billion versus a budgeted A$ 5 Billion surplus, Australia is forecasting it to get much worse at A$184 Billion this coming year. AUD at 1.41 versus USD.     South Korea   For the first time in 17 years, South Korea has entered […]

US Dollar   Pretty much across the board yesterday the greenback saw declines including against the Chinese Yuan up 2.5% since its low two months ago, the Euro, GBP, Swedish Kronor, Norwegian Kronor and NZ Dollar. Some of this was prompted by a further rise in Chinese equities ( CSI300 Index on a 5 year […]

US Airlines   Chicago USA based United saw a sharp decline in both bookings and also by 5.5% in its share price yesterday. Having revived until a couple of weeks ago, following the imposition of a 14 day quarantine rule in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey, United led the way with all US airlines […]