SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – EU Border Controls

Morning Brief – EU Border Controls

Humphrey Percy Wed 27 Mar 2024

EU Border Controls 26,000 respondents in 18 jurisdictions have spoken and 51% of them are dissatisfied with border controls and the level of immigration into the EU. Now that is a statistic that political parties across the EU should sit up and take notice of in the next two months in the lead up to […]

Morning Brief – A 1.08 floor?

Morning Brief – A 1.08 floor?

Charles Porter Tue 26 Mar 2024

A 1.08 floor? As we wrote yesterday, a surprise interest rate cut in Switzerland from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has jolted markets into life. Over the last month, the probability of interest rate cuts at major central banks has been falling consistently. This surprise cut from the SNB last week has awoken investors to […]

Morning Brief – UK Trade Deals

Morning Brief – UK Trade Deals

Humphrey Percy Mon 25 Mar 2024

UK Trade Deals While there have been deals signed with Australia in 2021 and New Zealand in 2022, the past post Brexit years in respect of trade deals have been more about which deals have not been agreed that should have been rather than those that did get signed: Canada due to the UK refusing […]

Morning Brief – Bank of England

Morning Brief – Bank of England

Humphrey Percy Fri 22 Mar 2024

Bank of England As expected UK interest rates were left unchanged following the Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting this week. The message is clear that the Old Lady will not be rushed into making hasty interest rate reduction decisions,and, given that inflation is still at 3.4%, the market sold GBP immediately after the announcement yesterday lunch […]

Morning Brief – Flimsy

Morning Brief – Flimsy

Charles Porter Thu 21 Mar 2024

Flimsy Overnight there has been a significant repricing in the US Dollar. Major Dollar crosses are exhibiting significant Dollar weakness as a result of the market’s interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s decision yesterday evening. Most of the headlines from the FOMC decision would leave you scratching your head to reconcile the meeting with the overnight […]

Morning Brief – UK Infrastructure

Morning Brief – UK Infrastructure

Humphrey Percy Wed 20 Mar 2024

UK Infrastructure British electricity demand is expected to rise by 64% in the next 10 years and could double by 2050. This increase is in large part down to ambitious decarbonisation targets which result in a shift towards transport and heating for example being almost completely powered by electricity. The deadline for decarbonisation is 2035 […]

Morning Brief – Negative Rates End

Morning Brief – Negative Rates End

Charles Porter Tue 19 Mar 2024

Negative Rates End The moment that markets seem to have been chasing for forever and a day finally arrived overnight. The Bank of Japan has ended its negative interest rate policy, setting benchmark rates within a positive band. The looseness of Japan’s monetary policy had left the Yen as the funding currency of choice and […]

Morning Brief – US Dollar

Morning Brief – US Dollar

Humphrey Percy Mon 18 Mar 2024

US Dollar The USD had a strong week more on the realisation that US interest rates are unlikely to fall as soon as hoped than on particularly strong economic data. In particular USD moved up against JPY. The USD index moved up the most this past week since the beginning of January.USD/JPY 149.05. Space VIP […]

Morning Brief – Brent Oil

Morning Brief – Brent Oil

Humphrey Percy Fri 15 Mar 2024

Brent Oil Having traded in a range of $75-85 for some time conventional wisdom is that despite some supply disruption, the oil market looks benign when it comes to price volatility. However, that supply disruption is not receding and may in fact be increasing as time passes and stocks are run down. Recent drone attacks […]

Morning Brief – Stealth

Morning Brief – Stealth

Charles Porter Thu 14 Mar 2024

Stealth Whilst it may soon be ending, the latest economic paradigm that has endured globally has been one of high inflation and economies have been virtually defined by respective central banks’ race to adjust interest rates. Rates are now widely expected to fall later this year, but until they do I conjecture we are still […]

Morning Brief – US Inflation

Morning Brief – US Inflation

Humphrey Percy Wed 13 Mar 2024

US Inflation So what? you might justifiably wonder at February US Inflation coming in at 3.2% versus the expected 3.1%. However such is the febrile state of the market psychology at present where every pundit and his/her dog are sifting through the auspices to work out when the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates, […]

Morning Brief – 4 years on

Morning Brief – 4 years on

Charles Porter Tue 12 Mar 2024

4 years on Yesterday marked the 4th anniversary of the declaration of a pandemic by the World Heath Organisation. Hearing that, many of you may question where the time has gone since. But the pandemic has left a lasting legacy on markets and the wider economy too. Many of the ranges within major currencies pairs […]

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