SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Daily Brief – German Election

Daily Brief – German Election

Humphrey Percy Wed 5 Feb 2025

German Election With just 18 days to go to the German election, tensions are building. The centre right CDU whose leader Friedrich Merz is likely to be the next Chancellor is under fire for proposing a tougher immigration policy. That says his critics is similar to the far right AFD and verboten given the antipathy […]

Daily Brief – Time to get a Thesaurus

Daily Brief – Time to get a Thesaurus

Charles Porter Tue 4 Feb 2025

Time to get a Thesaurus Removing tariffs just as quickly as President Trump thought to impose them is surely removing any elegance associated with Trump’s ‘favourite word in the dictionary’. On second thoughts, there likely never was any. In the two weeks that have passed since the President’s inauguration the tariff story goes something like […]

Daily Brief – Harmful, Toxic, Biased and Insecure

Daily Brief – Harmful, Toxic, Biased and Insecure

Humphrey Percy Mon 3 Feb 2025

Harmful, Toxic, Biased and Insecure Well it took less than one week: after the excitement that met the DeepSeek AI application, came the fight back, the negative press and the correct questioning as to whether DeepSeek is safe. Well surprise surprise, it does not tolerate or even answer questions prejudicial to China but there are […]

Daily Brief – Mission Driven

Daily Brief – Mission Driven

Humphrey Percy Fri 31 Jan 2025

Mission Driven ECB President Christine Lagarde faced some polite but firm questions in the post 25bp interest rate cut presser yesterday afternoon. Given that Germany, France and Ireland which are all on the EU naughty step have the worst Eurozone economic performances and Eurozone inflation is 2.4% or 4% for services inflation versus GDP growth […]

Daily Brief – ECB Up Next

Daily Brief – ECB Up Next

Charles Porter Thu 30 Jan 2025

ECB Up Next Despite traders continuing to keep a keen eye on the actions of President Trump, the European economy will begin to command attention for the remainder of this week. Having taken a breather on his squabble with Columbia over the weekend, the newly inaugurated President’s attention will turn to Congress. Less signing, more […]

Daily Brief – Competitiveness Compass

Daily Brief – Competitiveness Compass

Humphrey Percy Wed 29 Jan 2025

Competitiveness Compass In case it has passed you by, today is the day or Der Tag when the EU will publish its Competitiveness Compass. Before you reach for your Thesaurus to work out what the latest manifestation of the EU mangling the English language has in store for all of us, this is the twofold […]

Daily Brief – Reform

Daily Brief – Reform

Humphrey Percy Tue 28 Jan 2025

Reform Britain’s newest party is now the top polling party at 26%, 1 point ahead of the Conservatives and 4 points ahead of Labour. This is big news and perhaps explains why even Conservatives with strong nerves are beginning to wonder if the fortunes of the Conservatives might best be joined with Reform rather than […]

Daily Brief – Dollar Correction

Daily Brief – Dollar Correction

Charles Porter Tue 21 Jan 2025

Dollar Correction The infamous grab, hold, pull repeat handshake of President Trump almost sent several tumbling down during his inauguration at the US Capitol yesterday. Meanwhile, the actions and rhetoric surrounding his inauguration categorically did send the US Dollar lower following weeks of strong appreciation. Volatility had been expected moving into Trump’s inauguration yesterday. Whilst […]

Daily Brief – UK Growth

Daily Brief – UK Growth

Humphrey Percy Mon 20 Jan 2025

UK Growth Further worries this weekend for UK Chancellor Reeves as it emerges that if her plans were based on up to date forecasts rather than UK official growth projections not only would her numbers not add up but the UK would be faced with a GBP 30 billion hole in the budget. While inflation […]

Daily Brief – Germany

Daily Brief – Germany

Humphrey Percy Fri 17 Jan 2025

Germany In just 6 weeks Germany will vote and while Chancellor Scholz thinks that he can win, most others are equally convinced that he cannot based on his economic record alone that has seen the German economy contract by 0.3% in 2023 and by an estimated 0.2% in 2024. That on top of his ability […]

Daily Brief – Markets In Reverse – Inflation to the Rescue

Daily Brief – Markets In Reverse – Inflation to the Rescue

Charles Porter Thu 16 Jan 2025

Markets In Reverse – Inflation to the Rescue Particularly in the case of the beleaguered GB Pound, it may be time to do away with the textbook. Instead of attracting further demand as UK yields have risen, GBP has registered one of its worst starts to a year on record. It is a narrative of […]

Daily Brief – British Pound

Daily Brief – British Pound

Humphrey Percy Wed 15 Jan 2025

British Pound With a GBP 4 billion auction of 10 Year Gilts today, markets are watching carefully as higher long term rates put pressure on the UK Chancellor and GBP bounces around between USD 1.21 and 1.22. After 6 consecutive trading sessions with GBP weaker and a low of 1.2097 which has taken its toll, […]

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