SGM-FX insights

British Pound With weekly earnings coming out at up 5.7% in the 3 months to the end of May compared to the same period a year earlier which is a key indicator for inflation and closely watched by the Bank of England, the feeling in the market yesterday was that the likelihood of a rate […]

US Dollar Broadly the market liked Trump’s nomination, choice of running mate and the growing likelihood of a second term for the ex President. USD strengthened against almost all of the G10 currencies and 10 year bond yields declined. EUR/USD 1.0888. Japanese Yen As is normal practice in Japan the Japanese authorities do not comment […]

UK Growth The UK economy expanded 0.4% in May after 0% growth in April and at double the pace expected. GBP was perky on this, or maybe it was the unusual amount of sunshine on offer yesterday afternoon that lifted the spirits of British pound traders. The reason is that this surprisingly good picture(the growth […]

20 pips Despite significant macro events, FX volatility has taken a nose-dive in recent sessions. For EURUSD, the most heavily traded and directionally influential pair in the market, a range of just 20 pips prevailed through the European and into the US session. This is a currency pair that amongst many other factors yesterday was […]

Carlsberg It was third time lucky for Carlsberg in their bid to capture UK soft drinks firm Britvic which has Robinsons Barley Water, J20 and Fruit Shoots among others in its stable of refreshments. Paying GBP 3.3 billion or EUR 3.9 billion at 1290p per share, this was a significant acquisition for Carlsberg. The reason […]

Second Round The second and final round of the French legislative election took place on Sunday. The results of the election are now clear. However, the consequences of such voting outcomes are still far from known. With a relatively light data calendar for the Eurozone this week ahead of the ECB decision next Thursday, focus […]

US Election Bearing in mind that the CNN poll was taken on July 2 well after the disastrous debate between Trump and Biden but it put Trump ahead at 49% versus Biden at 43%, the subsequent ABC interview with pre-advised questions for President Biden will have done little or more likely will have compounded the […]

UK Election With the UK Voting exit poll at 2200 last night confirming what all of the polls had been saying in the lead up to Polling Day, while the result was never in doubt, contained within it there will be plenty of surprises on seat changes although short term it is far too early […]

Election/Independence Day After a relatively short-lived campaign, the day of reckoning has finally arrived in UK politics. Polling stations are already open and won’t close until 10pm tonight. As FX market observers will be used to, news flow on election day is strictly controlled. Analysis of electoral items including the broadcasting of speeches and conjecture […]

US Interest Rates Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has not so much hidden behind the data at the economic summit in Sintra, Portugal yesterday but rather deployed it as a weapon against those baying for rate cuts: with inflation still half a percentage point above the target level on the Personal Consumption Expenditure index which […]

First Round Voting The first round of voting in the French general elections has passed. With it, a composed market has had a chance to analyse the prospect it once feared above all others in French politics: a possible win for the National Rally. However, with the Euro gaining ground and no sign of a […]

USD/JPY As we have written recently the Japanese Yen is on a 38 year low versus the USD. This past weekend has seen a number of comments from the Japanese authorities along the same lines as at the beginning of June when the currency pair stood at 155. The reason this is noteworthy is that […]