SGM-FX insights

Globalisation As each week passes and returning President Trump’s January inauguration draws closer, he is if anything stepping up his rhetoric on the introduction of tariffs immediately after his return to office. China has responded in a measured way saying that they will maintain the value of the CNY rather than devaluing competitively as well […]

Where is the logic? The question posed by this daily brief may sound like a Black Eyed Peas song had they been woefully unsuccessful. But based on yesterday’s trading patterns is a wholly deserved question. The key data highlight released during yesterday’s European session was the German Ifo survey. As one of the leading indicators […]

EU Stagflation With inflation blipping up and business activity turning down, the S word is back on the table. Not only manufacturing but also the services sector fell sharply in November with the Purchasing Managers Index at its lowest level this year. The EUR facing a rampant Dollar is increasingly undermined by its own weakening […]

NYC Drought No not a mistake NYC issued a drought warning earlier this week: for the first time since 2002 New York City has such a water shortage that residents and businesses are being asked to respectively take fewer shorter showers and to conserve water. Reservoirs are well below normal levels and to accentuate the […]

What about December? If you listen closely, you can almost hear the sleigh bells ringing. December is just around the corner and as the angst towards those who put up decorations sometime in late summer fades in favour of cheer and good will to all men, it’ll soon be year-end. Before that however, at the […]

UK Mortgage Rates In a further widening of his very own credibility gap, UK PM Starmer denied that the recent Budget was responsible for the rises in UK mortgage rates from most of the High Street banks in the past two weeks as markets factored in higher inflation due to the measures announced by Chancellor […]

Mansion House Dinner Last week’s dinner attended by guest of honour still fairly new Chancellor Rachel Reeves turned out not to be much of a surprise from her due to the now well worn habit of leaking what she was going to say ahead of time. The surprise came rather from Bank of England Governor […]

Brazil When most Europeans hear the phrase Belt and Road in reference to China they think of the route of the ancient Silk Road from China to Europe. There is of course an initiative of the same name in Latin America and specifically between Brazil and the Pacific Coast to the Peruvian port of Chancay. […]

Flatline? The latest US CPI inflation data was presented to markets yesterday. Based on the significant position and price adjustments we have seen following the US election earlier this month, October price data was seen as a critical statistic. Following an outperformance of the Republican Party at the polls and a 25-basis point cut from […]

UK Statistics With wage growth at 4.8% higher year on year for the 3 months to the end of September and unemployment rising to 4.3% versus the expected 4.1% yesterday, the reasoning behind the thinly veiled warning from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is that they were taking a measured approach to further interest […]

All green, bar debt A global market rally that was largely catalysed by US stock market outperformance following the US election has extended for a fifth consecutive day. The rising tide of global markets appears to be carrying the majority of asset classes, bar one: debt. Despite an initial unwinding of so-called ‘Trump trades’ immediately […]

Trump and Europe Even before a week has elapsed since Trump’s resounding victory, analysts are scrabbling to work out what it all means for Europe. Broadly for the major European economies the sanctions mooted by Trump in his election pitch will mean a fall in their individual 2025 GDPs of between 0.3 and 0.4% and […]