Final Trading Day of 2024
With Christmas Eve now upon us, markets will be expecting a quieter day than they received four years ago. On this day in 2020, having locked down the UK and ‘cancelled Christmas’, Boris Johnson announced the completion of a post-Brexit trade deal with just a handful of days until the end of the transition period. As much as incoming President Trump may be trying to keep With the final trading day of 2024 underway, a brief look back at the year behind us in markets. Two often mutually exclusive characteristics of US markets have competed this year and ultimately proved to be capable of coexisting. Rising (relative) treasury yields plus a strengthening US Dollar are usually the antidote to equity market performance. Despite this fundamental relationship, 2024 has been characterised by both a colossal rise in the value of the Dollar and stock rallies beyond the wildest forecasts of equity analysts.
USD Spot indices have shown approximately 7% gains in 2024. A weak Euro has contributed heavily to such calculations. Expectations of US exceptionalism with respect to growth and wider economic conditions has allowed rate cutting expectations to be curtailed, supporting Dollar demand. Other major G10 losers measured against the Dollar include the JPY, NZD and NOK which have each lost in excess of 10%. AUD shaves in at a 9.91% decline versus the Dollar as of market open today. GBP is near flat on the year versus the Dollar (-1.45% as of market open) but severely weakened versus its mid-year peak (1.3433).
Whilst 2024 has played havoc with the swaps market as benchmark rates and rate expectations have rapidly evolved, year-end points have been surprisingly orderly. Portfolio and position balancing requirements often cause funding stresses in at least the US Dollar but often more currencies between the 31st December and the next trading day in that market. To date those stresses have been relatively imperceptible in today’s overnight markets.
Lastly, may we wish you a Happy New Year from all at SGM-FX.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Delayed fuse
Charles Porter
Thu 30 Apr 2026
Delayed fuse Last night’s Federal Reserve decision held all the potential requirements for a momentous occasion. Markets had been ascribing a high value to the event with options pricing suggesting the decision posed a significant risk towards exposed assets. Ultimately, the potential swan song publication of Chair Jay Powell passed without incident. Claims from some […]
Daily Brief – Long weekend
Charles Porter
Tue 5 May 2026
Long weekend For the UK, it was a long weekend in the sense that it brought with it the Early May Bank Holiday. For markets, it was a long weekend for a whole different reason. With most of the rest of the world not observing a bank holiday yesterday, market liquidity remained sufficient with few […]
Daily Brief – One pager
Charles Porter
Thu 7 May 2026
One pager Yesterday, a relief rally was underway covering virtually every corner of the market. Bonds rallied, equities rose and within FX the winners and losers were defined by a reversal of the trends that had previously emerged each time the Iranian conflict reared its head. The catalyst for the relief rally were headlines from […]
