Mid-term Day:
US voters travelled to the polls today with the political composition of the United States on the line. The mid-term elections are closing in on their twilight with seats in Congress’ House of Representatives and the Senate up for grabs. Throughout the day it has grown increasingly likely that votes in the House of Representatives have been won over by the Democrats with voting for the Senate favouring the incumbent Republican Party. The Dollar has lost some ground throughout the day to an appreciating Pound Sterling and a firm Euro. Minute by minute, the voting composition of the US polity becomes clearer with an inability to pass laws within the Senate pushing investors to liquidate holdings in a more exposed and politically uncertain US economy. The Pound has received good support throughout the day as markets asses the progress of May’s Cabinet meeting today. May has met with her cabinet to tell more opinionated leavers and remainers alike to moderate their views in the name of Brexit progress. At this stage, no news is good news as quietism by May’s ministerial colleagues is thought to signify tacit agreement with the Prime Minster’s Brexit plan. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the Pound has continued to appreciate step by step throughout the day. Italy continues to create an obstacle on the European front with the Commission and Italian leadership at loggerheads.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
A rising tide lifts all boats As the Dollar continues to perform lacklustre oscillations, key pairs remain rangebound. The trend so far this week has been for a mildly weaker Dollar. Given that the Dollar is considered the primary counterparty for most currencies, this creates a rising tide effect across the rest of the market. […]
Calling time on Swissy Switzerland’s Franc may be destined to faulter under its own weight. Despite rock bottom interest rates, the Swiss Franc has been a significant beneficiary of the post-Covid and Trump2 world. EURCHF, a key barometer of European risk, shows some 20-cents worth of Swiss rally post-Covid. The pair has dropped from well […]
A look ahead The UK Pound continues to be influenced by the gilt market and fiscal concerns. Sterling has been a very expensive short this year, contributing to its relative outperformance. In fact, the few episodes of sustained weakness we have seen tended to have either coincided with a global risk-off turn or a sharp […]