It tends to keep on going! Another glance at the parliamentary arithmetic that Prime Minister Theresa May faces, this time by the BBC, shows just how great a task is standing in front of the British premier next week. As reported last night, the hand of the UK government in the eye of the British public and Parliament has weakened, with two pivotal votes forcing May’s cabinet to stomach the reality of publishing their Plan B within days of a defeat on the Brexit bill. The government was also left wounded when parliament voted to forbid the cabinet from raising government spending to compensate for a lack of certainty and investment if it were to pursue a no-deal exit from the European Union. As reported today, it appears that May is in even greater peril ahead of the vote than we thought.
The publication from the BBC today reported that of the 650 MPs present in the House of Commons, May is looking at a losing majority of 227 votes. Based upon the public declarations of many MPs across all parties and the persuasions of each group of members, the broadcasting service reported that the government is only likely to accrue 206 votes. The result comes as research groups and polling institutions continue to suggest that the public as well as parliamentary opinion of the government is deteriorating. Sterling continues to be choppy despite trading within a tight range, losing a net 0.06% on the day on a trade weighted basis.
Tomorrow morning will see a flurry of data released for the UK economy. Confidence in the UK economy has remained surprisingly high despite the turmoil that political discussions have generated. Strong UK data will be pivotal to keep the Pound well supported within its present trading range.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter