Baby Steps:

Brexit sentiment is waning this morning despite highly positive sentiment over the Brexit swarming markets on Friday. Italian risk continues to weigh upon markets, supporting GBPEUR around 1.1380; back below 0.880 in the more popularly traded EURGBP. This leaves the Pound bragging three-month highs over the Euro. The Dollar continues to dominate Spot markets with the greenback trading one quarter of one percent higher than its market opening price, falling comfortably below a weak resistance level at 1.15. Friday afternoon saw even the frequently cold (particularly when sober), Jean-Claude Juncker, even bring himself to admit that a Brexit deal in November now looks wholly possible, even probable. Backing up this sentiment was a plethora of informal reports that the EU was ready to offer the UK a supercharged deal; a Canada-style deal on steroids. With Italy’s Prime Minister setting his sights on Commission President Juncker the French Minister of the Economy Pierre Moscovici, the troubled sovereign state’s own implosion sent waves through the single currency. The Chinese Yuan has devalued to trade close to 7 Renminbi to the Dollar, with banking reserves slashed in a move to boost economic growth. The flooding of markets with excess supply of onshore Renminbi, the devaluation of the currency has important implication for the future of a trade war and thus the US Dollar.

Since Market Open:

• GBP:   Brexit sentiment is more tumultuous than the British weather. Friday’s heatwave has been met by Monday morning drizzle as the Pound looses close to 0.2% on the day.  

• EUR:   Juncker is ruining Europe! Claims Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. I won’t mention the last person who was accused of doing such a thing… But the threat is highlighting Italy’s contempt for Europe.

• USD:   The rally that won’t abate: The US Dollar continues to rally as the Renminbi falls increasing the concomitant efficacy of a trade war.

• EM:    The Rand trades flat on the day despite a surging US Dollar.

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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