SGM-FX insights

The ECB:  Still a driver of EURUSD? This week will see the ECB deliver its latest monetary policy decision. Partly down to the role that the ECB has carved for itself, but more likely due to the volatility induced by Trump’s current administration, the significance of such events to key currency crosses is rightfully being questioned. […]

European Economies Of the 5 largest European economies, the largest 3 being Germany, UK and France are growing more slowly than Italy and Spain . That is if they are measured by job postings. However the number of job postings turns out to be a reliable indicator on this occasion. So for those looking for […]

Germany After all the sturm and drang of the German election at the weekend, the outcome can be summed up as the far Right AFD making the most seat gains at +69 and the Far Left Die Linke wining +25 seats but with the pyrrhic victory of no other parties being willing to work with […]

The other side of the pair USDJPY is undeniably one of the most important currency pairs in the FX market. It plays its role as a significant barometer for market sentiment globally as well as regional risk. USDJPY has the second highest traded volume on average in the market behind EURUSD. For almost a decade […]

Germany The victory for Chancellor Merz in the weekend Election was popular with the market and the EUR duly strengthened. This was more of a gut reaction than a reasoned response as while the result chimed with the EU political weather, any logical reasoning will lead to the conclusion that the formation of a working […]

Just a Tweet Away The week ahead will prove to be light on the data front. There is still the possibility of some data surprises coming from US growth and EU inflation on Thursday and Friday respectively. However, by and large the FX market will have to take its direction from elsewhere this week. Despite […]

France There are 4000 people in France with assets of more than €100 million and they account for just 0.01% of French citizens. Never mind that, the Ecologist Party supported by the Greens and the far left in the National Assembly are determined to target those ultra rich. Unlikely to be approved but eye catching, […]

Approval Ratings One month in and while unlikely to cause POTUS Trump sleepless nights, his approval ratings have shifted markedly on his handling of the US economy. Up from 43% to 53% of those polled believe he on the wrong track. Some noise about immigration and inflation but it is noteworthy that 54% of respondents […]

Inflation vs Inflation If you cast your mind back to late 2024 I’m sure your first thought will be inflation back below the Bank of England’s 2% target. Since then the Bank has still proceeded with two modest interest rate cuts. With UK headline inflation being read at 3% yesterday, is inflation rearing its ugly […]

German Election This weekend will almost certainly see a reduction in the Green Party’s share of the vote in the elections on Sunday. In 2021 the Greens captured 14.7% of the pie with ecological issues and specifically climate change and clean energy being high up the list of voter pre-occupations. Scroll forward four years and […]

Dollar Correction – Here to Stay? Yesterday marked President’s Day in the United States of America. The bank holiday and the lighter trading volumes that were observed did not lead to any significant volatility. Instead, lighter volumes allowed recent ranges in USD to solidify. Ahead of the bank holiday and into the end of last […]

Japan Up by 47% in 2024 from 2023 the number of tourists visiting Japan has rocketed due to its favourable exchange rate. It seems unlikely but now Japan is becoming concerned about the sort of over tourism that has plagued European destinations such as Venice, Paris and Amsterdam. Meanwhile Japan is enjoying the economic windfall […]