SGM-FX insights

News Overload In the last days it has at times felt overwhelming given the plethora of Trump announcements and the less than credible attempts by his coterie of officials to explain or even more ambitiously, to justify the illiterate economic reasoning behind it all. Take Jonathan Ferro on Bloomberg, whose eyebrows nearly disappeared into the […]

No let up If you look at the headlines coming from the financial press, you’d be forgiven to think the events of the last three trading sessions were the latest financial crisis. The truth is, at least for now, it isn’t. I certainly wouldn’t argue that the destruction in value within asset prices is negligible, […]

EU Consumers While no one would pretend that the past week has been good for savers and investors, there is a glimmer of hope for EU consumers. The argument goes as follows: the EU exports EUR 500 billion of goods to the USA and imports EUR 350 billion. Conversely, the EU’s service sector is exactly […]

Weaker US Dollar As the dust settles and the tealeaves are sifted, the obvious early take is that POTUS has achieved an initial post tariff announcement reduction in the value of USD which he stated as his aim before he took office. An immediate jump in value of so called safe haven currencies Japanese Yen […]

Now that’s what I call Tariffs  The title of this briefing is an homage to that (n)ever-popular publication of CDs (formerly vinyl) that seemed to be everywhere when I was growing up. Containing the ‘best’ hits of a particular year, you never seemed to be far from a ‘now that’s what I call’ CD (or […]

US Trade War Tariffs With all markets awaiting what emanates from POTUS later today, Trump has certainly achieved one aim: getting the world’s collective attention. Increasingly desperate TV pundits have spent the past hours dragging past Trade Negotiators into the studio in an effort to get them to predict what the tariffs will look like. […]

Holding on With less than a 10% probability of a cut priced into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy decision, it is unsurprising markets open today to news of a hold. The RBA adopted a lower peak rate of benchmark interest than the likes of the UK and USA with lower inflationary […]

De-Dollarization A shift away from the US Dollar with Central Bank Reserves denominated in US Dollars moving down from a high of just over 70% down to 60% in the past 20 years is note worthy but the speed of that decline makes it less striking. However there are 3 factors that are changing the […]

Pairs Trading Back in the days when I worked in Bermuda for a hedge fund, we were always seeking stocks that were overvalued and other stocks that were undervalued having analysed both sets of historical price behaviours. Normally those stocks were in the same industry but not necessarily in the same geographic region. In the […]

Pointless Being the Point Yesterday, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Budget to the House of Commons. Since the government’s first budget last year, bond markets have not been kind to the Chancellor, taking its angst out in the form of higher yields. The selling (and increased issuance) of UK gilts has inevitably created […]

British Government Securities-Gilts Gilts are increasingly popular as a place for UK investors to park savings: the Interactive platform for example is seeing a 42% increase in gilt transactions and a 65% increase in gilt investments. Part of the reason is that in the first 6 months of 2025 no less than GBP 80 billion […]

What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord, and should markets care? At heart, the Mar-a-Lago Accord is a proposal for President Trump to weaken the US Dollar. As we know, Trump’s typical deregulatory and risk-inducing persuasion would, all other things equal, increase demand for the US Dollar. As far as the relationship between perceived risk and the […]