SGM-FX insights

US Consumer Spending Inflation may be a concern, consumer sentiment may be low, the US labour market may be slowing but in the past four months the US consumer has been out and proud: spending. While consumer spending fell on an inflation adjusted basis for H1 2025, taking the period from may to end August […]

Independent Central Banks The concept that has served the USA and the wider world so well for more than 8 decades is being tested in respect of the Federal Reserve by POTUS and the financial world is largely so far, complacent. Distinguished economist Paul Krugman wrote an excellent piece yesterday and his conclusion, other than […]

Suspended animation Earlier this week, headlines seemed to hold all the makings of a bout of fresh volatility. So far, that volatility has failed to materialise, despite continued fundamental pressures largely political in nature. We have highlighted how a political vacuum in France is likely to raise perceived regional risk within one of Europe’s foremost […]

Knock On Currency Moves Reuters conducted a survey of the largest European companies and unsurprisingly pretty much all of them are citing the strengthening EUR as having negatively impacted their results in H1. Whether it’s German telecoms or Dutch paint, the story is the same. But in another twist to the tale of tariffs and […]

Powell’s pivot? With US stock indices hitting record highs on Friday, it is perhaps unsurprising that the market took a breather during the UK bank holiday yesterday. Light trading volumes during European hours, particularly within FX, created a steady start to the trading week. However, it was the turn of US equities to deliver some […]

532,046 That was the number of members of the Labour Party at its peak in 2019. By the end of 2024, after Sir Keir and his team had won an election and placed their stamp on the UK, that number had fallen to 333,235. This together with the flagging Conservative Party represents the widespread disillusionment […]

CEE – outperformance overlooked Central and eastern European FX is not often discussed in financial media. Without commanding regional forces, their collective values are often the product of wider market forces. This week, the world has continued to pay attention to the ongoing negotiations amongst world leaders regarding a deal for peace between Russia and […]

US Dollar The first 7 months of the year has been characterised by a weakening USD down 13% and largely prompted by both the threat and actuality of US tariffs and the damage that they will cause to the US economy. On top of that, the US Administration has been consistent in talking down the […]

Mixed signals It was not long ago that many investment banks were warning clients of the risk of a slowdown in US equities. Having performed exceptionally well in the aftermath of the pause to Trump’s liberation day tariffs, many market participants warned of the inability of equity values to continue to enable price gains. Volatility […]

Jackson Hole This week’s annual gathering of top global economists and policy makers at the Wyoming resort will be more than usually closely followed by markets. The big event is on Friday when Fed Chair Powell will speak. Mostly the expectation is that Jerome Powell will adopt a less hawkish tone and will signal the […]

UK Growth The beginning of 2025 marked 0.7% growth in Q1 and the expectation for Q2 was for the UK economy to flatline, so when growth came in at 0.3%, which is exactly the same as France, Germany, and Italy, it prompted the more impressionable market commentators to dust off their forecasts and start talking […]

What the Trump-Putin meet up means for markets  Tomorrow a US military base in Alaska will play host to the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This date has been known for some time with POTUS taking to his chosen and own social media platform, Truth social, in order […]