SGM-FX insights

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   This afternoon, at 13:30BST, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, a subset of the U.S Department of Commerce, released economic growth data. Estimating the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2017, the data release attested to an annualised rate of growth of 3.0%. Beating consensus […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Bank of England: Stop and Think – Please!   This week was dominated by one event and so too will next week. Whilst monetary policy continues to, by and large, rule exchange rates, the Bank of England monetary policy decision on Thursday  must be watched closely. Despite a […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   There were high hopes for Australian Consumer Price Index inflation statistics released in the early hours of yesterday morning. The data released bucked the trend emanating from Australia this month. Showing under-expectation inflation, year-on-year inflation within the Australian economy fell short of the previous release. With monetary policy […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   A short while ago, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) for the United Kingdom released economic growth data in the form of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Measuring the total value of goods and services within the economy over a given time period, GDP is the favoured statistic to […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:     Data coming out of the Eurozone has been positive and, more often than not, beaten market expectations both when concerning ‘hard’ data from the underlying economy of ‘soft’ data related to sentiment and confidence levels. The Euro, however, has been largely ambivalent throughout these releases. Whilst tax […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   BoE: Stop and Think – Please!   Part Two: To raise rates or not to raise rates:     To analyse the relationship between the two components of inflation, the dual graph below models the effect of food and services inflation respectively against overall price inflation. These graphs […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Bank of England: Stop and Think – Please!   Inflation within the United Kingdom is uncontrolled and rampant, surely, we have to raise interest rates! At least that’s what the first page of an economics textbook might suggest. In reality, a decision to tighten UK monetary policy on […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   The triumph of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, over the weekend has driven the Japanese stock market skyward and the exchange rate downward. Whilst the certainty of a freshly mandated national government usually affords a domestic currency with value, the specific brand […]

Safe Haven Currencies are an imperative, yet complicated, business. Rising in value and price in the face of Geopolitical and general uncertainty and risk, their trend often defies not only other asset trends but also logic. In this article, we analyse known havens and the possible causes for their existence.    US Dollar   The […]

Discussion and Analysis By Charles Porter: Last week’s inflation data within the United States was strong, yet underwhelming. It has led to significant speculation on the US Dollar given the significance of the rate of inflation to currency markets. When the data was released, the US Dollar spooked significantly, losing 0.4% of its value against […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   The Federal Reserve Board’s Chair, Janet Yellen, has serviced in her present office since 2014. Her four-year term ends in February 2018 and her reappointment looks uncertain at best. Regardless of whom the White House appoints as the next Fed Chair and Chairman of the Federal Open Market […]

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter:   Parliament is dissolved and the date is set for Japan’s election later this month. A bold political move by incumbent Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, now looks likely to achieve its ultimate purpose. The significance of Japan’s election to the Yen cannot be understated. The importance spills over […]