SGM-FX insights

Change of plan The ECB’s decision to adjust policy in June hadn’t been a consensus view within the market. The probability of a rate cut increased into the decision, but many had expected the Bank to keep rates on hold, pausing to take stock of policy adjustment to date. The decision last month to make […]

US Dollar As markets mostly do after a near straight line decline of 14% up until the end of June USD has clawed back 2% since July 1. For the next couple of months it would look as if USD will consolidate further. What could spoil that? 1. Unexpected US protectionism in the shape of […]

EU Budget There’s nothing like a EUR 2 Trillion Budget to test the bonds of brotherhood binding the EU bloc to squeaking point. Yesterday, President Ursula von Der Leyen launched her increased and eye watering strategic budget which has already met what is politely termed a mixed reception by the EU Parliament as the key […]

There goes those foundations Markets whipsawed yesterday as the press published regarding POTUS’ intentions for the Fed Chair. CBS news kicked things off reporting Trump had asked a room of Republican lawmakers on Tuesday whether he should fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jay Powell. That report suggested Trump had indicated on Tuesday night […]

FTSE100 With all eyes on the Westminster PM – Chancellor drama recently, or alternatively the saga of POTUS tariffs, it is easy to overlook the positive in that the FTSE is up 10% this year and has just notched up a new “big figure” and an all time high of 9000+. All too often the […]

Weak foundations After a rally of around 15% year to date, there is significant cognitive and technical room for consolidation within EURUSD. Implied volatility has been rising given the macroeconomic backdrop that markets have encountered this year. Even within such an environment, a 15% rally in the market’s most traded instrument is still enormous. But […]

Georgia Having applied to join the EU in March 2022 and been granted accession in December 2023, Georgia seemed to have been on course to join the EU. However, a few months later the EU and Georgia terminated the process. With the Georgia Dream party in power, and all the leaders of the pro West […]

Strong USD Those punitive tariff threats – Copper 50%, Brazil 50% and Pharmaceuticals 200% had a marked effect on USD. Bizarrely, while POTUS has been conducting his self-harming measures on the USA and the USD, he sees no contradiction in maintaining that he sees USD remaining the primary world reserve currency. A total of 22 […]

Dollar Reserves  With the passing of Trump’s original deadline for the reimposition of liberation day tariffs yesterday, markets have breathed a sigh of relief. July VIX futures continued to slide lower. Moreover, what may surprise anyone who had been expecting the issue of tariffs to resurface following the passing of Trump’s new deadline, so too […]

Australia Falling inflation, sluggish economic growth, a strong currency, lower living standards and low productivity would normally easily add up to an interest rate cut by the central bank: not in Australia where it was widely expected that yesterday would indeed see a rate cut. That is because the Reserve Bank of Australia is worried […]

Weren’t Tariffs USD Negative? The Dollar proved sensitive to headlines regarding trade during the US overnight session. However, contrary to what many commentaries would have you believe, as the risk of tariffs escalated the Dollar rose. The 90-day pause following Trump’s April ‘liberation day’ tariffs had been set to expire this coming Wednesday. To the […]

Poland June 2025 will go down as a milestone for the energy sector in Poland as it was the first month that renewable energy overtook fossil fuels as a proportion of Poland’s total energy requirements. Poland is one of the highest emitting countries only behind China, Kuwait, South Africa, and Kazakhstan and despite coal consumption […]