As Brexit dominates the Pound, economics and monetary policy dominates the Dollar, and political scandal dominates the Rand, FX markets may start sounding like a broken record. However, one should remain very much aware that this repetition and almost paradigmatic taxonomy of certain currencies is more fragile than it may seem. Even the slightest amelioration or deterioration of the current situation could have phenomenal or catastrophic consequences for the respective currency. The Dollar has been the unquestionable winner so far this week as markets reprice their approach to the Chairmanship of Jay Powell. Sterling meanwhile has been caught in the doldrums, threatened by a Dollar that currently trades at 1.3750 against the Pound and 1.1280 against the Euro. The Rand has weakened off mildly following a disappointing and somewhat frustrating cabinet reshuffle. The Rand now trades close to 16.40 against the Pound, 11.92 against the Dollar, whilst clinging on just above 14.50 against the Euro.
Overrated Rates The unwinding of USD implied short term interest rates shouldn’t be underestimated. Take a brief look at changes in FX swap pricing over the past few months and you’ll see just how significant those interest rate expectations have proved to be. Particularly within GBPUSD, the difference is enormous. Post-pandemic inflationary pressures affected the […]
Fifty Up Exactly 50 years ago today I set out on my career in the City of London. Many of the men whom I worked with wore bowler hats and smoked pipes. Discount House men wore morning dress and top hats. Everyone wore two or three piece suits and black shoes. If you wore brown […]
China A snapshot of China today gives more than a strong indication of the likely effect on the rest of the world’s economies. In August, China had record breaking temperatures – the highest for 60 years which was further exacerbated by thunderstorms which affected agriculture sending vegetable prices 22% higher than 1 year before. Despite […]