Congressional Juggling:
The people of the United States have spoken! With both Trump’s Republican party and the Democrats claiming victory over the mid-term elections in the public eye, markets have been more decisive in the face of the ballot. The Republicans held control of the Senate, however, ceded power of the House of Representatives to the Democrats. Markets have interpreted the mid-term elections by undermining the value of the US Dollar, likely pricing in the increased degree of political gridlock that the United States will face in pursuing economic growth. For months, economists and strategists alike have been debating when will economic growth in the United States peak. Given Trump’s pro-market and pro-growth presidency, political headwinds prevent fiscally driven economic growth, increasing the impetus for Powell’s Federal Reserve to pause its interest rate hiking phase. Positively, with the House being controlled by the Democrats, Trump’s capacity to increase the United States’ extant burden of debt does limit the extent to which the White House could drift into fiscal profligacy. Italy’s spending plan remains in the foreground of the picture of Eurozone risk with signs of inflationary pressure in the Eurozone being overwhelmed by political instability. The Pound received a sustained yet light bid at market open as investors continue to orientate themselves towards a long-awaited Brexit deal.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord, and should markets care? At heart, the Mar-a-Lago Accord is a proposal for President Trump to weaken the US Dollar. As we know, Trump’s typical deregulatory and risk-inducing persuasion would, all other things equal, increase demand for the US Dollar. As far as the relationship between perceived risk and the […]
Holding on With less than a 10% probability of a cut priced into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest monetary policy decision, it is unsurprising markets open today to news of a hold. The RBA adopted a lower peak rate of benchmark interest than the likes of the UK and USA with lower inflationary […]
Pointless Being the Point Yesterday, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Budget to the House of Commons. Since the government’s first budget last year, bond markets have not been kind to the Chancellor, taking its angst out in the form of higher yields. The selling (and increased issuance) of UK gilts has inevitably created […]