With US officials now playing down the likelihood of a US-China trade deal at the forthcoming G20 at the end of this week, there are two takeaways for seasoned market watchers: first there is little likelihood of a trade deal given the well known entrenched positions of the protagonists and second the USA does not want to risk further egg on its face after the fiasco last time markets expected a deal only to have those expectations crushed. Maybe just maybe the G20 is in fact a more positive pitch for the USA and China than markets expect. With the USD having sold off and stock markets sharing that pessimism, there is room for surprise and upside: hold the front page!
That engine of growth and prosperity and home to 1.4 billion people has woken up to the events and threats in the Gulf of Arabia with a rude shock: 84% of its oil is imported and 63% of its oil comes from the Middle East and through the straits of Hormuz…If you are struggling to understand why PM Modi might be having sleepless nights over this, bearing in mind that that oil will still flow to some degree and that India will no doubt source alternative supplies, get this: India has only 9 days of reserves. Now THAT is a statistic. Watch the Indian Rupee digest that- in addition to the other challenges it has with unemployment and a stuttering economy (by their standards).
Beware the latest version of the WT20 guide-great if you are a restaurant that is featured but for the dining public it is just as likely to mean grossly inflated pricing and not necessarily the best of experiences. What is striking is the inclusion of some restaurants and the exclusion of many other in our opinion at least, better ones!
However hats off to the Menton, France restaurant Mirazur which has 3 Michelin Stars, the most stunning view from its terrace and several menus which while dear look to be fair value for the restaurant voted the very best in the World!
Bon appetit!
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – The Hassett Trade
Charles Porter
Thu 4 Dec 2025
The Hassett Trade Not another one, I hear you say. So far this year we’ve seen bandied around the TACO trade, the Trump put, FOMO trade, the MEGA trade, surely there isn’t another to surface before year end?! Wrong. The so-called Hassett trade is that which is currently pushing the Dollar lower but coming to […]
Daily Brief – A week out
Charles Porter
Tue 2 Dec 2025
A week out Markets are now in their final few trading days ahead of a Fed blackout that will precede the Reserve’s decision next Wednesday. The US government shutdown, despite now feeling like a distant memory, continues to weigh on the Dollar and market pricing in general. In particular, as we approach the decision next […]
Daily Brief – OBR: Oops, Budget Released
Charles Porter
Thu 27 Nov 2025
OBR: Oops, Budget Released Traders who might have been out grabbing a coffee ahead of the planned publication of the UK budget yesterday afternoon would have returned to chaos. Reuters, a popular financial news agency, revealed that although not directly discoverable via a link on their website, the OBR had published its report on Chancellor […]
