May Might Miss March M(deadline):
Sat in the pursuit of a synonym for ‘deadline’ that begins with the letter ‘M’ all for the sake of alliteration, it’s easy to let the tumultuous world of Brexit pass you by. Foreign exchange markets seem just as carefree unable to displace the Pound more than 0.01% since market open this morning! There were residual signs of swelling risk. In the options market, high demand for risk reversals saw Sterling’s implied volatility fall for contracts with a late-March expiry whilst call options appreciated in value relative to put options, suggesting Sterling upside rather than downside is the fear. In the Sterling spot market, a sudden and short-lived rally through 1.13 was observed as headlines erroneously hinted towards a delay in the Brexit deadline. When the government lost last night’s vote on the Brexit deal, Sterling spiked upwards. The reason that traders and analysts have attributed to the appreciation is that the defeat left May’s deal so dead in the water that it was inconceivable, what with the decreasing probability of a no-deal Brexit, that the UK could leave by March 29th, therefore inviting a softer and more thorough Brexit. Today’s continued rally stands as testimony to this view. However, last night’s rally following a day of losses undeniably represents a liquidation of short covering and positioning moving into the vote. With the vote of no confidence tonight, we’re in for another evening of salience and turbulence. Hold onto your hats!
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Hungary
Humphrey Percy
Fri 10 Apr 2026
Hungary Whether it is wishful thinking or informed speculation on the part of the EU, Sunday’s Election in Hungary could see PM Viktor Orban – long time super irritant to Brussels voted out of office after 16 years. With a Debt to GDP ratio of 73% and a budget deficit of more than 5% Hungary […]
Daily Brief – Gold and Silver
Humphrey Percy
Wed 4 Feb 2026
Gold and Silver Due to the vertiginous moves in both these precious metals all markets are more than usually fixated on the price action at present. Yesterday, both steadied and clawed back some of the recent losses with Gold rising almost 6% and Silver 10% to USD 4921, and USD 86.70 respectively at the time […]
Daily Brief – Sterling
Humphrey Percy
Wed 8 Apr 2026
Sterling Domestic UK readers will understandably be wondering how Sterling is faring as a stand-alone country currency, beset by recent soaring Jet Fuel, Natural Gas, and of course Oil prices. The answer, at present at least, is that it is holding up well partly on Governor Bailey of the Bank of England’s comments about interest […]
