Morning Brief – Value Travel

Value Travel

As Brits approach the end of the year, it is traditional to start thinking about next year’s foreign holiday. There are two drivers, firstly the buying power of GBP and secondly the value for money at the various destinations. Leading the pack for positive exchange rate movement since the start of the pandemic is the biggest bargain which is Turkey, followed by Jamaica then Mauritius and Kenya. When you get to the destination, costs are lowest in Bulgaria, then Turkey, Portugal, Bali, South Africa, Czech Republic and Spain. Clearly while some of the above look like bargains, there is the matter of getting there, but despite that, for winter sunshine Mauritius and Kenya look like the standouts. So load up your SGM-FX currency cards with GBP and EUR and get booking!

Gold

Having spent more of 2021 below $1800 than above it, Gold currently stands at $1817.

Silver at $24.16 conversely has spent more of the past year above that level than below it. The logic for the current bounce in the gold price is that gold is often seen as an inflation hedge and with the strong job figures last week, the assumption is that the US economy is strengthening which will lead to further inflationary pressure. Just as a reminder the 2021 high for gold was recorded on January 3 at $1941, so the price has a way to go before strong conclusions can be drawn.

Luxury Goods

Bad luck for those under pressure husbands looking to buy their significant other a bijou gift for Christmas from one of the brands: on Friday night Chanel marked up some of their already pricey handbags by 10-15%, a move that is expected to presage rises across the sector given that all luxury good share prices took heart and rose. I suppose that as an alternative, a useful (British made) kitchen appliance is out of the question?!

Shake Shack

On Friday evening Shake Shack (SHAK) roared up from $78 to just under $100 before closing at $90.97. This 19% rise was prompted by Q4 sales looking as if they will breach the $1 billion mark. That is a lot of burgers, salads and juices but with the return to work and the rollout of more outlets in suburban locations, the health of the recovery looks strong. The target price for year end is now $100 with a fair value of $83 from some analysts, so if one believes the story, it is a case of buying on a dip back towards $80 rather than joining in at $90.

Disco for Grown Ups

Exactly a year ago today, pop fans were wowed by the release of Kylie’s 15th album, Disco which the pop princess herself dubbed as “disco for grown-ups.” Made during Lockdown One, Disco has it all for Kylie fans, although less kind listeners wonder at the sheer chutzpah of releasing this album where large parts of it reflect the pop pixie’s voice as being missing in action. As a reminder of happier times, here is a very much more memorable and lucky for both Kylie and her fans number from 1987: I should be So Lucky:

In my imagination

There is no complication

I dream about you all the time

In my mind, a celebration

The sweetest of sensation

Thinking you could be mine

In my imagination

There is no hesitation

We walk together hand in hand

I’m dreaming

You fell in love with me

Like I’m in love with you

But dreaming’s all I do

If only they’d come true

I should be so lucky

Lucky, lucky, lucky

I should be so lucky in love

I should be so lucky

Lucky, lucky, lucky

I should be so lucky in love

It’s a crazy situation

You always keep me waiting

Because it’s only make believe

And I would come a-running

To give you all my loving

If one day you would notice me

My heart is close to breaking

And I can’t go on faking

The fantasy that you’ll be mine

I’m dreaming

That you’re in love with me

Like I’m in love with you

But dreaming’s all I do

If only they’d come true

I should be so lucky

Lucky, lucky, lucky

I should be so lucky in love

I should be so lucky

Lucky, lucky, lucky

I should be so lucky in love

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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