Mid-term Day:
US voters travelled to the polls today with the political composition of the United States on the line. The mid-term elections are closing in on their twilight with seats in Congress’ House of Representatives and the Senate up for grabs. Throughout the day it has grown increasingly likely that votes in the House of Representatives have been won over by the Democrats with voting for the Senate favouring the incumbent Republican Party. The Dollar has lost some ground throughout the day to an appreciating Pound Sterling and a firm Euro. Minute by minute, the voting composition of the US polity becomes clearer with an inability to pass laws within the Senate pushing investors to liquidate holdings in a more exposed and politically uncertain US economy. The Pound has received good support throughout the day as markets asses the progress of May’s Cabinet meeting today. May has met with her cabinet to tell more opinionated leavers and remainers alike to moderate their views in the name of Brexit progress. At this stage, no news is good news as quietism by May’s ministerial colleagues is thought to signify tacit agreement with the Prime Minster’s Brexit plan. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the Pound has continued to appreciate step by step throughout the day. Italy continues to create an obstacle on the European front with the Commission and Italian leadership at loggerheads.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Rotation out of the US Quite what that rotation may mean and by how much is exercising the markets and also doubtless the Chair of the Federal Reserve. For the yield on 10 year US Treasury Bonds to move from 3.99% to 4.50% in a week is extraordinary. At the same time, the US Dollar […]
UK Employment At 75.1%, employment for people aged 16-64 looks sort of OK depending on what that really means, but it does not alter the fact that there are currently 1.55 million people who are unemployed, or 4.4% of the potential workforce. Another much more significant number, is that there are currently 9.27 million people […]
China FX has found some breathing room against the backdrop of a weaker Dollar. As we know, that weaker Dollar is largely created by two factors. Firstly, the Dollar losing its safe haven status and even attracting a risk premium as investors shield themselves from the uncertainty of President Trump’s tariff game. Secondly, again as […]