No Deal Exit Off The Table?
With UK MPs due to debate a number of amendments to TM’s Brexit Deal this evening at 7pm, markets are pricing in the assumption that a No Deal Brexit is off the table. GBP is set for its best monthly performance for a year so what could possibly go wrong?
The European Research Group of MPs believe that no deal is better than a poor deal. Funnily enough the Prime Minister believed that until she put her deal on the table which has the dubious distinction of being the least worst bad deal. GBP remains steady and holding above USD1.31.
Suppose just suppose that perceptions do change after tonight that a No Deal is still a possibility, GBP will look very different tomorrow morning. For those GBP sellers needing to buy USD and EUR it would look sensible to hedge all or a good part of their exposures. The old adage, Buy the Rumour, Sell the Fact may be apposite in the next 24 hours.
Elsewhere gold remains above USD 1,300 per ounce which is a 7 month high and symbolic of the uncertain world we find ourselves in with Trade talks, the sellotaped temporary fix on the US Shutdown and European politics all in the mix and adding up to a potent brew of market moving factors.
So here we go again in the drama which hopefully is not going to turn into a full blown crisis in UK politics. Buckle up and see what happens this evening!
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Volatility on offer
Charles Porter
Thu 13 Nov 2025
Volatility on offer As we approach year end, traded ranges have remained relatively narrow despite significant macroeconomic themes developing. Looking ahead beyond year end, we note the options market continues to severely underprice volatility versus historical standards. Within such an environment, broader risk appetite remains constructive. As a result, the carry trade has continued its […]
Daily Brief – One in three
Charles Porter
Tue 4 Nov 2025
One in three Until recently, the market had held the probability of a rate cut at the Bank of England’s November meeting at near zero. Above-target inflation and insufficient evidence of faltering economic growth alone suggested the BoE would continue to adopt a wait and see approach. Combine that with the uncertainty of the UK […]
Daily Brief – Just in time?
Charles Porter
Tue 11 Nov 2025
Just in time? As we wrote yesterday, the latest US government shut down has become the longest in history. The impact upon sentiment and consumption is sure to have been significant but it is too early to identify from the data just how much damage was done. Thanks to the eight democrats who have broken […]
