The pun above was simply too good to miss. Musing upon its formation ahead of May’s speech before the House of Commons this afternoon its brilliance seemed surpassed only by its malleability and simplicity. Perhaps a pun on the gift giving on one’s day of birth should May’s speech have been a triumphant suggest; otherwise a patriotic reminder of the landing on the beaches of Normandy should the performance have stood the chance of changing the course of European history; upon the maturity of an unspeakable shambles, it could even be a pun on a plumbing fixture commonplace in continental Europe used to clean one’s… see Wikipedia for the rest. Despite the brilliant malleable simplicity of the pun, having watched May’s speech closely, none of the three interpretations appear appropriate!
Certainly, as is clear from the foreign exchange market, May’s deal cannot be considered a path defining moment in the future of Britain’s relationship with Europe – these events normally invite a shift of more than 0.5% in the exchange rate! Sadly, neither might it be considered a gift to parliament nor the Commons’ reaction a birthday-like reward to Mrs May! Much to the disappointment of my title, even the greatest sceptics of May’s performance this afternoon would not have condemned her words to the status of… See above.
Enough fun. What did May really offer? Well first off, to the immediate disappointment of markets, she ruled out delaying Brexit negotiations seemingly putting a lid on the market-friendly suggestion that Article 50 be delayed. Counterbalancing this disappointing news, May quickly followed up by extending Parliament’s right to have a greater say in the future UK-EU trade deal. Overwhelmingly, however, from where I’m sitting, Plan B is Plan A with its fingers crossed even tighter. As a Conservative pro-second referendum Member of Parliament stated on Twitter, “It’s like last week’s vote never happened”.
MPs and markets now have a week in order to digest the PM’s statement before voting on what will materialise as an overwhelmingly neutral motion. The Pound immediately tried to test the lower bound of today’s trading range, however, finding limited support and encouraged by the inclusion of Parliament in the final vote, the Pound rose to test and struggle to break 1.29. From the looks of things, this rate will not survive tomorrow unless something tangible is found to support the largely technical move – sell the Pound fast?
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – British pound
Humphrey Percy
Fri 13 Jun 2025
British pound Sterling finds itself in the limelight and trading at its recent highs as somewhat improbably a couple of bolder market commentators have suggested the UK will benefit as a result of the disaffection with the USA and the USD at present. Those commentators have obviously not been following the commentary about UK Chancellor […]
Daily Brief – Oil Supply
Humphrey Percy
Mon 16 Jun 2025
Oil Supply With Friday’s rocketing up in the oil price of 12% to $78, the question is whether that is it and we have just seen a re-set or whether this is the first staging post in a much larger increase. That, of course, depends on the unfolding Israel-Iran attacks and whether that conflict spreads […]
Daily Brief – EU Inflation
Humphrey Percy
Wed 4 Jun 2025
EU Inflation Paving the way for a 25bp rate cut tomorrow, EU inflation came in at 1.9% on the back of uncertainty, lack of consumer confidence and people sitting on their cash. So overall good on inflation but a sign of less good things in the EU. As ever, the overall inflation figure had some […]
