Morning Brief – Global Economy

Morning Brief – Global Economy

Wed 2 Dec 2020

Global Economy


Wide variations in different countries but overall the OECD has a clear picture in its latest Economic Outlook of the global economy: 2020 -4.2%; 2021 +4.2%; 2022 +3.7%. That means that the world will return to pre pandemic levels at the end of 2021. The engine that is going to pull the global train out and back from 2020? China. China the only country covered by the OECD to see any growth in 2020, will see growth in 2020 of 1.8% but, in 2021 will grow by 8%. The USA on the other hand is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2021. The Paris based economic policy forum sees the EU area contracting 7.5% in 2020 and a return to growth of 3.6% in 2021. With EU inflation stuck at -0.3% versus a target of +2%, calls are increasing for the ECB to take action soon.



Fun Loving Germans


Not content with erecting a 2 metre statue of a phallus on top of the 1738 metre Grunten Mountain in Bavaria, German hikers for years have been trekking up there to take photos of themselves standing proud beside the wooden phallus. This pleasure has now been denied them since a person or persons unknown have taken a saw to it  and now all that remains of the statue is a short stump and some wood chips. This comes in the same week as the mayor and citizens of Fucking in Austria, fed up with visitors stealing their signs, have re-named their town, Fugging. Back to Grunten where Germany’s finest while not exactly hard on the heels of the statue thieves, are concentrating on how they managed to transport the 200KG statue down the mountain -and just how big a sack the thieves would have needed.  A result is not imminently expected as a (far from rock hard) police spokesman has said: “We are not sure whether a criminal offence has been committed or not.” Despite these events in Bavaria and in neighbouring Austria, EUR at its best in 2 years, continued to trade in a far from flaccid range above 1.19 v USD.



Gilbert O’Sullivan


A happy 74th birthday to the Irish soft rock singer who once made the unfortunate claim: ”I was bigger than Elton John”. Never mind, Gilbert lives in Jersey, is worth $20 million and still sports a (very) full head of his own permed hair. You can’t help but admire the achievements: 6 number Ones, 19 albums and is still at it. Here’s one of his best known hits from 1972:


Alone Again (Naturally)

In a little while from now
If I’m not feeling any less sour
I promise myself to treat myself
And visit a nearby tower
And climbing to the top
Will throw myself off
In an effort to
Make it clear to whoever
Wants to know what it’s like when you’re shattered

Left standing in the lurch at a church
Were people saying, My God, that’s tough
She stood him up
No point in us remaining
We may as well go home
As I did on my own
Alone again, naturally




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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