News of the death of I.M.Pei the inspirational architect at the age of 102 late last night. At this time of US Sino stresses it is worth looking at the simply staggering array of work produced by Pei the son of a bank manager born in Canton(Guangzhou) China and who arrived in the USA where he was educated at Harvard and MIT before building his iconic career. A true collaboration.
As highlighted last month the 2018 Italian debt position is 132% of GDP which is due to rise to 133% this year and 135% next. This is in contravention of EU rules that insist that such a deficit must be reduced but Italy is going in the opposite direction. 10 year Italian Government Bonds now yield 2.75% versus that of Germany’s which yield….Minus 0.7%. Deputy PM Salvini has indicated that Italy  is ready to break those rules which calls into question the EU financial rules structure and hence the value of EUR. Markets have sold EUR while they watch the Italian government and the EU closely as to how they deal with this.
Saudi Arabia and the Oil Price
In the past 8 years the oil price has halved to $60 and this has resulted in Saudi Arabia borrowing $10billion in 2016 to meet their budget gap and reducing supply to even maintain the oil price even at this level. Last week we wrote that there is the prospect of a $15 oil price due to huge advances in the production of shale oil combined with a reduction in demand. Growth in the Kingdom is still at 2% but contrast that with the healthy 9% that the aspirational and growing and young population had become accustomed to. A new (huge) revenue source is required and quickly. The size of the Saudi economy makes the rest of the Gulf economies a relative side show so expect that region to feature heavily in the news in the next five years-and not in a good way.
Monet and Les Meules-Giant Haystacks
In 1986 it would have taken a brave heart to have written a cheque for $2.53 million for this painting. In 8 minutes and with a reserve price of $55 million, that savvy investment from the heart paid off with someone this week paying $110 million for this depiction of a stack of harvested wheat. In the 33 years that the previous owner of the painting enjoyed the painting-assuming it was not stored in a vault-as a US resident it might have been a matter of supreme indifference to them that at one time that $110 million was worth GBP 92 million and at another GBP 52 million. Quite a swing. For the rest of us 25 quid at myartprints.co.uk will buy you a nice poster of a similar looking Monet haystack!
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
UK Energy Apart from announcing that there will be no further North Sea drilling licences issued, newly minted Uk Energy Minister Ed Miliband has wasted no time in greenlighting three huge new solar farms in Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire and Suffolk. Sufficient to power 400,000 homes with an output of 1.4 GW the solar farms will cover […]
Germany The German business climate was slated to rise in July but instead it fell in terms of both current and also future expected business conditions as reflected in the IFO Index made up of manufacturing, services, trade and construction sectors as submitted by 9000 firms. Germans wishing doubtlessly that they could be as strongly […]
British Pound GBP is currently in fashion: with a record number of long positions and currently at the top of the G7 currency performance charts and after a period of being deeply unfashionable GBP is wanted-in a good way. The reasons for this are diverse: first off is the Bank of England’s caution on cutting […]