The headline US durable goods orders report was stronger than expected with a 1.8% increase for January, but the figure was inflated by aircraft orders and underlying sales declined 0.2% on the month following a revised 0.9% gain for January. Pending home sales data was weaker than expected with a 2.8% decline for January which pushed annual growth to 12- month lows. The Euro rallied to highs around 1.0630 after the US data as the dollar faded slightly.
Dallas Fed President Kaplan stated that the Fed should increase interest rates in the near future which helped boost speculation of a rate hike in March with futures markets indicating the chances of a move had increased to around 50%. The shift helped underpin the dollar and the Euro retreated below 1.0600 and held just below this level on Tuesday.
Missing haven At the start of the year, the Franc had performed well as a safehaven. As a result of political and economic developments in Japan, the Yen was not abiding by its usual safehaven form. Therefore, defensive plays within FX only had two credible places to go: the US Dollar or the Swiss Franc. […]
Battle of the banks Market volatility continues amidst unclear messaging from both sides of the conflict in Iran. The President’s position has continued to flit between seemingly concrete positions of absolutely tangible progress and bombing the nation back ‘to the Stone Ages’. Since the start of the war, smarter money has acknowledged that predicting the […]
Questioning Truth Adopting the same handle as his now rather redundant X account, @realDonaldTrump shocked markets yesterday using his own social media platform, Truth Social. During Trump 1.0, the legitimacy of a President using an unofficial X, then Twitter, account was questioned. Now under Trump 2.0, it’s seldom questioned when he is the majority shareholder […]