The headline US durable goods orders report was stronger than expected with a 1.8% increase for January, but the figure was inflated by aircraft orders and underlying sales declined 0.2% on the month following a revised 0.9% gain for January. Pending home sales data was weaker than expected with a 2.8% decline for January which pushed annual growth to 12- month lows. The Euro rallied to highs around 1.0630 after the US data as the dollar faded slightly.
Dallas Fed President Kaplan stated that the Fed should increase interest rates in the near future which helped boost speculation of a rate hike in March with futures markets indicating the chances of a move had increased to around 50%. The shift helped underpin the dollar and the Euro retreated below 1.0600 and held just below this level on Tuesday.
Sterling defence Options markets are flashing warning signals for Sterling. It’s no secret that the forthcoming Bank of England monetary policy decision later this week poses a risk for the Pound. However, there are risks mounting further afield. The local elections on May 7th are a material risk for GBP, for example, with traders concerned the […]
Cancelled Travel Plans No, this time not because of the impending jet fuel crisis threatening continental travel as we discussed yesterday. Instead, I’m referring to the grounding of Vice President Vance whose trip to Islamabad, Pakistan was cancelled on Tuesday to avoid embarrassment. The Vice President was expected to travel on Tuesday to resume talks […]
TACO or MACO? On Friday markets received headlines of the supposed conclusion to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the vast consequences of military action upon the region and beyond, it has repeatedly been the Strait that has been cast as the epicentre of economic (mis)fortune during this war. Therefore, the initial reaction […]