Daily Brief – US Dollar

US Dollar

There is a case that can be made for a weaker USD but it is by no means a compelling one. Consumer purchasing and softer employment data reduce the case for higher interest rates. Federal policy uncertainty and Chair Warsh’s rocky start on articulating that policy also threaten USD. Against that there is POTUS’ erratic foreign policies (plural) which raises geopolitical tensions. Last but not least is inflation: that spectre has not only not gone away, but high gasoline prices are a major factor in that persistent and likely rising rate of US inflation. Overall as previously, while never under-estimating the current US Administration’s capacity for self-harm, reports of the early demise of USD are exaggerated.

EUR/USD 1.1676.

World Cities

Of course, it is in part subjective and in part a personal choice, but a chart was published this week that sets out to measure the cost of living versus quality of life. Those axes are split into 4 quadrants: Budget living; best value; premium life and bad value. Best value includes Porto, Lisbon, Prague, and Tokyo (surprisingly); budget living features Budapest, Buenos Aires, Athens, and Santiago; premium life i.e. expensive but worth it, has plenty to choose from including Vienna, Amsterdam, Singapore, and Sydney. That leaves bad value which unsurprisingly includes most large US cities but also Milan, Paris and Dublin. As for London? It is right there in the bad value quadrant. I did say it was subjective and a personal choice!

Brent Oil USD 93.47.

US Debt

The headlines are that it now stands at USD 40 trillion which is exactly twice where it stood in 2016 at the outset of Trump01. President Biden added USD 8.4 trillion but Trump has increased it in his 1.5 terms so far by USD 11.6 trillion. The cost of servicing that gargantuan debt mountain now costs more than USD 1 trillion per annum which, given the increased size of the debt and much higher interest rates than the Covid subsidised rock bottom rates of 2020 means that debt servicing costs have doubled for the USA since 2020.

GBP/USD 1.3633.

GCSE Results

When it comes to 2026 top grades of A and A* there is a varying picture across the British Isles. Northern Ireland scores an impressive 31% with top marks. England manages 28%. Scotland of course has its GCSE equivalent the N5 where Scottish teenage bright sparks forged ahead of Wales with 40% of candidates achieving A grade. Wales while not laggards scored just under 20% at A and A*. Plenty will doubtless be written about grade inflation and there will be muttering of prizes for everyone from some but the fact remains that candidates and marks across the United Kingdom show marked differences.

EUR/GBP 0.8567.

Be Here Now

This was of course the third album from Oasis that became the fastest selling album ever with 350,000 units snapped up on the first day of its release this day in 1997. The cover image was shot at Stocks, the former Hertfordshire UK home of Victor Lownes, the head of the Playboy Club in London’s Park Lane and serial giver of racy parties. Originally Oasis consisted of Liam Gallagher, Paul “Bonehead” Arthurs, Paul “Guigsy” McGuigan and Tony McCarroll. Then Liam asked his older brother Noel to join and the rest is history.

Wash your face in the morning sun
Flash your pen at the song that I’m singin’
Touch down bass livin’ on the run
Make no sweat at the hole that you’re diggin’

Wrap up cold when it’s warm outside
Your shit jokes remind me of Digsy’s
Be my magic carpet ride
Fly me down to Capitol City in the sun

Kickin’ up a storm
From the day that I was born
Sing a song for me, one from Let It Be
Open up your eyes, get a grip of yourself inside

So wash your face in the morning sun
Flash your pen at the song that I’m singin’
Touch down bass livin’ on the run
Make no sweat of the hole that you’re diggin’

Kickin’ up a storm
From the day that I was born
Sing a song for me, one from Let It Be
Open up your eyes, get a grip of yourself inside

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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