Daily Brief – UK Growth

UK Growth

Normally when UK Government figures come in exactly in line with forecasts it is a matter for self congratulation among economists and last week’s July Growth figures were no exception: the expectation was for Zero growth and indeed growth for the UK economy in July was Zero.

There is a snag here: apart from the bleeding obvious, the fact is that the not so new UK Government has nailed its colours to the mast and those colours are economic growth. Was it not for the Autumn Statement coming up on November 26th and it doubtless looking to be like a very uncomfortable ride for a government that is more than accustomed to uncomfortable rides, the UK Chancellor might be expected to fall on her slide rule. The thing is that no-one else with an ounce of political nouse would want that gig, so Rachel Reeves’s looks safe-until November.

GBP/USD 1.3556.

Oil Reserves

With the spotlight currently not on oil (in fact if anything the market is looking weak on over supply of oil), it is worth taking a look at where the world’s oil reserves lie given the seismic geopolitical upheaval resulting from recent moves from POTUS, Putin and Xi not to mention India, Iran, and North Korea as junior members of the non US aligned coalition. Interesting to note that Venezuela (300+billion barrels) and Iran (200+billion barrels) together account for twice Saudi Arabia’s reserves (250+ billion barrels). Canada (170 billion barrels), and UAE (107 billion barrels), and Kuwait (104 billion barrels) add up to almost 4 times Russia’s oil reserves of 102 billion barrels. Despite demand for carbon fuel falling, the fact remains that for the foreseeable future the whole world will continue to run on oil and where the reserves lie is doubtless a topic of discussion for the non US aligned coalition.

Brent USD 66.71.

Fitch and France

As we trailed earlier, on Friday ratings agency Fitch duly marked down France’s credit rating from AA to A and said that without drastic action, the debt burden of France will keep on growing and forecast it to reach 121% of GDP by 2027. France is the 3rd most indebted EU nation after Greece and Italy but it is not all bad news with inflation at the bottom of the EU league table and unemployment stable at 7.5%.

EUR/USD 1.1734.

Merthyr Tydfil

It may not have the same ring as Medellin but this Welsh town has recently featured in a major drugs bust that saw a number of Welsh drug kingpins taken down and jailed. When one was raided by the police he hid his phone on top of his bedroom wardrobe which again was not exactly El Chapo territory. Having not thought to shut it down it was the work of moments for Merthyr’s finest to open his WhatsApp and bring down the other members of the gang.

EUR/GBP 0.8653.

Twisting the Night Away

Definitely one for the anorak at the pub quiz: not well known but Rod Stewart released his version of this song this day in 1973. Not well known because unusually for the androgynous pop pixie this song was a flop for him only managing to reach Number 59 in the charts:

Let me tell you ’bout a place
Somewhere up a new york way
Where the people are so gay
Twistin’ the night away
 
Here they have a lot of fun
Puttin’ trouble on the run
Man, you find the old and young
Twistin’ the night away
 
They’re twistin’, twistin’
Everybody’s feelin’ great
They’re twistin’, twistin’
They’re twistin’ the night away
 
Here’s a man in evenin’ clothes
How he got here, I don’t know, but
Man, you oughta see him go
Twistin’ the night away
 
He’s dancin’ with the chick in slacks
She’s a movin’ up and back
Oh man, there ain’t nothin’ like
Twistin’ the night away

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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