Daily Brief – Sintra

Sintra

The Central Bankers’ fest hosted by the ECB in Sintra Portugal threw out some memorable soundbites as we have already written about this week, but as takeaways from the closing remarks, the Federal Reserve under new Chair Warsh announced that inflation was under control and the risks have reduced but that he/they would be unrelenting on driving the current 4.2% back down to within the 2% target; President Lagarde of the ECB said that risks to EU inflation and economic growth were now more broadly balanced. Andrew Bailey commented on higher government bond yields, equity market moves and the equity market puffed up by the AI boom. In summary, the mood music was lightened by the lower oil price, but all the Central Bankers remain alert to containing and reducing the inflation that none of them believe has really gone away.

EUR/JPY 184.10.

EUR 37 trillion

That is the amount that Europeans are estimated to hold that is mostly idle rather than invested. No need to pinch yourself: EUR 37,000 Billion. No-one is entirely clear why Europeans are less active as investors than their American counterparts, but some would have it that Europeans are less financially educated. The principal difference between the two markets is that the American market is integrated albeit with regional variations whereas the EU market comprises 27 national markets that are not integrated. While the debate continues, the fact is that when it comes to the largest untapped frontier market, it is the EU market that while accessible remains largely unexploited.

GBP/EUR 1.1676.

Bayeux Tapestry

The near 1000-year-old 70-meter-long tapestry woven to commemorate the Battle of Hastings in 1066 on loan from the Bayeux Museum where it normally resides is due to go on show in London at the British Museum in September for the first time ever in the UK. Tickets are being snapped up and when the sales kiosk opened on Wednesday, an online queue of 65,000 people quickly built up, keen to buy the GBP 33 peak or GBP 27 off peak adult tickets. If you missed out this month, there will be two further opportunities to buy in October and January. Alternatively, you might (sensibly) elect to visit the newly refurbished Bayeux Museum in Normandy when it is re-opened in May next year and where an adult ticket will only set you back EUR 12.

EUR/USD 1.1442.

Apple Leak

If you are contemplating a new phone, hold off and wait and see the 5 new offerings that Apple are planning in the second half of this year and in the course of 2027. This year will see the introduction of a foldable device for the first time ever from Apple and the first half of 2027 will include the launch of the iPhone 18 and an iPhone Air. This news comes because of files and photos being stolen from Apple’s Indian supplier Tata Electronics which were the subject of a hack. Given that Apple is border-line obsessive on managing model launches not to mention secrecy, one can only imagine the white heat of the interchanges between Apple and Tata as the issue of trust is thoroughly debated.

GBP/USD 1.3366.

Happy Talk

Punk group The Damned made guitarist Captain Sensible famous in 1982 but as in all good rock history, Captain Sensible decided that musically he could better express himself musically on his own and so he went solo. What was not expected was that Captain Sensible would draw on Rodgers and Hammerstein for his new musical direction and it was this day in 1982 that he began a run at Number One which came from the 1949 musical South Pacific.

Happy talkin’, talkin Happy talk
Talk about things you’d like to do
You’ve got to have a dream
If you don’t have a dream
How you gonna have a dream come true

Talk about the moon floating in the sky
Looking like a lily on a lake
Talk about the bird learning how to fly
Making all the music he can make

Happy talkin’ talkin Happy talk
Talk about things you’d like to do
You’ve got to have a dream
If you don’t have a dream
How you gonna have a dream come true

Let’s talk about the star looking like a toy
Peeking through the branches of a tree
Talk about the girl talk about the boy
Counting all the ripples on the sea

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter