Daily Brief – Poland

Poland

June 2025 will go down as a milestone for the energy sector in Poland as it was the first month that renewable energy overtook fossil fuels as a proportion of Poland’s total energy requirements. Poland is one of the highest emitting countries only behind China, Kuwait, South Africa, and Kazakhstan and despite coal consumption falling 38% in the past decade, is still a heavy user of oil and natural gas to supply its power stations. The only thing holding back further increases in renewable energy is the infrastructure which needs investment to upgrade it.

GBP/USD 1.3650.

US Tariffs

A big week for tariffs given that the moratorium extended by POTUS expires on Wednesday. To recap and it will not take long: only Vietnam Nam has agreed a deal with the USA for lower rates, China has a partial agreement in the context of much higher tariffs and nearer to home the UK with much fanfare has also agreed a deal but regrettably it does not stand up to too much scrutiny being an exercise of style(ish) over substance. The big one is the EU which was initially advised of 20% tariffs and, while the US and EU remain talking, both sides are aware that time runs out on Wednesday. POTUS says there are letters that will be posted to 12 countries later today but that does not sound as if one of those will be addressed to the EU.

EUR/USD 1.1780.

UK Tax Rises

The end of Chancellor Reeves of definitely no tax rises mantra came with a whimper rather than a show of defiance through the mechanism of that tried and tested sympathetic medium of the Guardian newspaper in a carefully worded article on Saturday morning. No RR had not considered resigning but in a rueful tip at her front bench colleagues she said that there had to be consequences to the chops and changes to the government welfare bill that deprived the Treasury of some much needed savings. Those consequences included tax rises in the autumn which cannot now be ruled out-political speak for now nailed on as a certainty. There remains the issue of the past week that has left deep fissures in Labour MPs relationship with the Chancellor although RR’s famously thick skin will doubtless attempt to brush that inconvenient truth off.

EUR/GBP 0.8631.

O Canada

In the past few weeks as PM Carney starts getting his feet under the desk of the office of state, the world has been more focused on events in the Gulf than the simmering discord between the two North American nations. Their own agreed deadline for a trade agreement is for July 21 and despite some noise from the Canadian oil rich states that have been making a case for separatism and even alignment with the USA, the betting is that an agreement will be hammered out in the next two weeks simply due to the interconnectedness of the border economies.

USD/CAD 1.3601.

Ice Cream

This day in 1999 it was announced that instead of the traditional ice cream van jingle tones that vendors would be free to use pop sings to attract their mostly younger client base. Pop group jingles from the Spice Girls and Oasis were the first to be deployed. What could be more suitable for such a purpose than Wannabe?! Uncomplicated and a jingle.

Yo, I’ll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
So tell me what you want, what you really, really want
I’ll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
So tell me what you want, what you really, really want
I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha)
I wanna really, really, really wanna zigazig ah

If you want my future, forget my past
If you wanna get with me, better make it fast
Now don’t go wasting my precious time
Get your act together we could be just fine

I’ll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
So tell me what you want, what you really, really want
I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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