Daily Brief – Oil Trading

Oil Trading

15 minutes before POTUS making his social media announcement on Monday that a 5-day moratorium would be put in place on the USA attacking Iran’s key energy infrastructure, crude oil was pre-market trading at 0649 hrs with a volume of 733 contracts at USD 100.72. One minute later, the trade volume spiked up to 2007 contracts, bearing in mind it was now 0650 hrs and still both pre-market and now 14 minutes ahead of the dramatic POTUS release. In subsequent chaotic trading, the price fell to USD 84.16. The White House spokesman when contacted said that it did not “tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge”. So that’s all right then: move along, nothing to see here other than the White House grammar.

GBP/EUR 1.1560.

Australia and the EU

Ursula Von Der Leyen, the EU Commission President, has been in Australia inking a trade deal which will see EU carmakers selling more cars to Australia, and Australian beef farmers increasing their sales by ten times over the next 10 years. Both Australian and EU farmers are unhappy since the EU farmers wanted no increase in Australian beef imports and the Australian famers wanted more. Billed as a win win for both the EU and Australia, both sets of famers disagree vehemently. At EUR 8 billion the trade deal hardly moves the dial for the EU and represents more in the way of style rather than substance for UVDL as well as a welcome sunny break down under for her. Win win?

EUR/USD 1.1593.

Bank of England

He may have been in Skopje, North Macedonia at a Central Bank Conference, but Huw Pill, the Bank of England’s hawkish Chief Economist warned that the Bank stands ready to act and that the continuing Iran war is increasing upside risks to price stability. The two scenarios are that in the face of a softening jobs market, the Bank of England can be more patient on the inflationary effects of the Iran war or alternatively, that it will be more pro-active to stamp on the inflationary stimulus of the war. It sounded more like the latter to listeners in Skopje yesterday.

GBP/USD 1.3402.

Whodunnit

Jedburgh, Scotland’s finest were not required to display their sleuthing skills in 2022 when a jilted Northern Irish ex-police detective turned freelance photographer expressed his disappointment at his de-fenestration by bingeing on alcohol followed by him driving his car at speed through the window of the funeral parlour business run by his ex-partner and narrowly missing killing both her and her mother. Remorse and amnesia claims cut no ice with the judge who sent him well away from any further window activity for 11 years in 2024. 2 years later, an undisclosed compensation settlement between the warring parties has been agreed and the funeral parlour is back in business.

GBP/NZD 2.2998.

Everybody Hurts

R.E.M. guitarist Peter Buck appeared in court this day in 2002, and somewhat improbably Bono from U2 gave evidence as a character witness claiming that Peter Buck was known as being a peaceable person. We say improbably not only about Bono, but because Peter Buck was up on charges of air rage having been accused of attacking 2 cabin staff, knocking over a trolley, trying to steal a knife and then in a sublime rock ‘n’ roll moment covering them in yoghurt. Almost certainly a R.E.M. fan, the judge concluded that there must have been something in the air that night and cleared him of all charges.

When your day is long
And the night, the night is yours alone
When you’re sure you’ve had enough
Of this life, well hang on

Don’t let yourself go
‘Cause everybody cries
Everybody hurts sometimes

Sometimes everything is wrong
Now it’s time to sing along

When your day is night alone (hold on, hold on)
If you feel like letting go (hold on)
If you think you’ve had too much
Of this life, well hang on

‘Cause everybody hurts
Take comfort in your friends
Everybody hurts

Don’t throw your hand, oh no
Don’t throw your hand
If you feel like you’re alone
No, no, no, you are not alone

If you’re on your own in this life
The days and nights are long
When you think you’ve had too much
Of this life to hang on

Well, everybody hurts sometimes

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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