Daily Brief – Oil

Oil

Because oil is back once again at the front and centre of the market agenda, rather than spending more time on why the price is at USD 98 slightly lower than Thursday’s USD 100+, we will try and list the factors that will determine where it is going. On the assumption that there is no immediate US Iran peace deal, the price could conceivably rise as high as USD 150 on increased hostilities and/or attacks by the Houthis on shipping. The other major determinant is if/when China starts buying oil in size again which has given a welcome boost to European supply in the past 4 months. Lastly, there is the impact which will be felt when the end of oil market price complacency arrives and the narrative shifts from price blip to balloon ahead of the Autumn/Winter months.

EUR/USD 1.1370.

August 19

That is the day that the USA is set to impose a set of tariffs on 60 countries to replace the 10% global tariff previously in place. Except in the case of Brazil which is 12.5% and Canada which is up to 50% prompting PM Carney to in return promise a trade war with the USA. So, another month, more brinkmanship and as ever confusion all round prompted by POTUS. The USA so far has returned USD 81 billion from the last set of tariffs imposed by POTUS which were deemed to be unlawful.

GBP/USD 1.3325.

Dubrovnik

At 239 acres, Dubrovnik, Croatia or the pearl of the Adriatic sits somewhere between the size of Greenwich Park 184 acres and Hyde Park 350 acres. A victim of its own success, Dubrovnik is hugely popular with day trippers and cruise line visitors alike. Somehow, given its small size and the fact that no-one lives there anymore, Dubrovnik has enjoyed 2 million overnight stays in H1 2026 and 650,000 day visitors and that is down to Dubrovnik sensibly managing visitors with maximums permitted at any time which it can achieve thanks to it being a walled city through staggered entrances.

EUR/GBP 0.8534.

Kalshi and US Politics

Prediction betting in case you are interested, is more than a thing. Kelshi in Arabic means all and Kalshi, the prediction betting site claims that it took the word kelshi to reflect that its name denoted the ability to make bets on almost everything. Take a look if you have a minute and you will find among others, sections on Politics, Sport, Crypto, Elections, Trending, Economics,  Finance, Tech and Science, Commodities and Climate. If US politics is your thing, you might be interested that Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are the only two runners for Democrat presidential nominee in 2028 but neither of them score more than a 18% probability. In other words, the Democrats halfway through the most contentious Republican term ever, have still not managed to field more than two candidates both of whom are ranked as 5/1 shots. This may be relevant since the betting is 64% for President Trump to be impeached before 2028 at which point, of course,  J.D. Vance as VP would get the keys to the White House.

EUR/JPY 186.27.

Wannabe

It was of course The Spice Girls who topped the charts in 22 countries and sold 6 million copiesof Wannabe this day in 1996 when they went to Number 1 in the UK. There were plenty of plaudits with the Ivor Novello Award and the BRITS among them, but it was the concept of packaged up girl band naughtiness that established girl power and the 5 Spice Girls who most certainly did (mostly) get what they really, really wanted… including for example a F1 Manager and a Man U Star. Zigazig oh yeah.

Ha ha ha ha ha
Yo, I’ll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
So tell me what you want, what you really, really want
I’ll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
So tell me what you want, what you really, really want
I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha)
I wanna really, really, really wanna zigazig ah

If you want my future, forget my past
If you wanna get with me, better make it fast
Now don’t go wasting my precious time
Get your act together we could be just fine

I’ll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
So tell me what you want, what you really, really want
I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha) I wanna, (ha)
I wanna really, really, really wanna zigazig ah
If you wanna be my lover, you gotta get with my friends
(Gotta get with my friends)
Make it last forever, friendship never ends
If you wanna be my lover, you have got to give
Taking is too easy, but that’s the way it is

Oh, what do you think about that?
Now you know how I feel
Say you can handle my love, are you for real?
(Are you for real?)
I won’t be hasty, I’ll give you a try
If you really bug me then I’ll say goodbye

Yo, I’ll tell you what I want, what I really, really want

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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