Daily Brief – IEA v OPEC

IEA v OPEC

Normally there is some sort of consensus among economic forecasters in the same field – in this case oil, but when it comes to Oil consumption in 2026, the Paris based IEA sees a contraction of 1.6 million barrels per day due to supply constraints from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and higher prices dampening demand. OPEC on the other hand sees an increase of approximately 650,000 barrels per day. That difference of 2.2 million BPD is vast and adds up to USD 200 million in revenue per day or USD 73 billion over a year. Unsurprisingly, given that amount of revenue that the OPEC forecasters have more than a passing vested interest in their version of 2026. At least both the IEA and OPEC agree that consumption will increase by between 2.2 and 2.4 million BPD in 2024 – it’s just a question of where you start from.

GBP/USD 1.3496.

Hong Kong

Never bet against Hong Kong’s resilience and bounce back ability. After watching US banks exit the then British Dependent Territory en masse post the dot com crash in 2001 only to rush back a few months later, Hong Kong has an irresistible draw to people and businesses who want to do business. Hong Kong is embarking on a structured 5 year financial plan to make this bridgehead to China stronger still. Already a centre for IPO’s, FX, Gold, and recently Bonds with the launch of the Offshore Yuan Bond Futures Contract, Hong Kong is now working on Fintech, improved Commodities trading infrastructure and more Yuan products. 

EUR/USD 1.1533.

UK Growth

Q2 saw the UK economy grow by 0.4% down from 0.6% in Q1 but up 1.2% in the year to end June. As we know, when the sun comes out as strongly as it has in Q3, people stop shopping in favour of outdoor pursuits, so expectations are for the stuttering growth picture to slow in H2 2026. 

GBP/EUR 1.1701.

Clacton

Endless quips from Count Binface have in part enlivened what was a foregone conclusion and therefore a dull contest. But wait a minute, Democracy in Clacton is alive and well and plenty of candidates have something to say, in fact no less than 34 candidates took to the canvassing trail. The Monster Raving Loony Party fielded 2 candidates: Baron Von Thunderclap and Nick the Incredible Flying Brick while the Everyone is God party was represented by Marcus White. Only in Clacton. In August.

EUR/JPY 183.77.

Won’t Get Fooled Again

For more mature readers, the Who’s album Who’s Next will be as fresh today as it was this day in 1971 when it was released. Generally regarded as their finest album, the Who went on of course to release not one but two rock opera albums – Tommy and Quadrophenia, but it is this album that will have ex Mods tapping their feet/hearing aids to this anthem to the music revolution that was the 1970’s.

We’ll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgment of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song

I’ll tip my hat to the new Constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again

Change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the fold, that’s all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain’t changed
‘Cause the banners, they all flown in the last war

I’ll tip my hat to the new Constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again
No, no

I’ll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half-alive
I’ll get all my papers and smile at the sky
For I know that the hypnotized never lie
Do you?

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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