Daily Brief – EU and Venezuela

EU and Venezuela

In 2024, the EU exported EUR 800 million of goods to Venezuela and imported EUR 2.1 billion, giving a trade volume of EUR 2.9 billion. The exports are mainly made up of minerals, chemicals, and machine goods, and the imports are of course primarily oil. As for the main EU country doing business with Venezuela, it is Spain which makes up more than half of all trade. Statistically, these trade volumes barely register in the EU trade tables but it is of course the 303 billion barrels of oil reserves and the political heft resulting from that which is the true agenda for the EU and indeed the whole world.

EUR/USD 1.1667.

EU Outsourcing

In these days of MAGA and sanctions with POTUS reversing the trend of the USA outsourcing manufacturing to cheaper economies in South East Asia and elsewhere, it is interesting to note that the EU likewise continues to outsource jobs to other countries in IT for example. However, the countries that the EU outsources to are the UK, India, USA and Canada, and China. Germany is the largest country in terms of those jobs with in excess of 50,000 outsourced abroad. It is worth noting the ratio of domestic jobs lost versus those gained through outsourcing. Between 2020 and 2023 the EU lost 150,000 jobs through outsourcing but gained only 50,000. The implication is clear that the EU is an expensive place to do business and neighbouring countries that can offer competitive costings will continue to benefit.

EUR/JPY 185.41.

Oil and Iran

With Brent up to USD 64.34 on the back of Iran oil supply disruption fears, it is worth reminding ourselves that the shadow tanker fleet delivering oil to countries that are not concerned by the long running sanctions on Iran are paying approximately 20% less or USD 52 for oil which gives them an economic advantage (Russia and China to name but two) but also delivers some much needed though illegal income to Iran. At the time of the 1979 Iranian Revolution that saw the Shah deposed, USD 1 would have bought 70 Iranian Riyals. By the beginning of 2026 that had risen to 1.4 million Iranian Riyals. Further falls in the value of the Iranian Riyal in the past 2 weeks have sparked further civil unrest but the real problem is that the official exchange rate is 42,000 Riyals and very few people have access to hard currency which together with 40%+ inflation is creating real economic misery for the Iranian people. 

GBP/USD 1.3479.

Lying

Now this one is threatening to well and truly break the mould: Wales is proposing a law to make it illegal for politicians to lie during Welsh elections. However, before you get your hopes up for some truth in May during the local elections, in Wales at least, the law will not come into effect until 2030. So, business as usual in Wales and indeed everywhere at the time of the May local elections.

EUR/GBP 0.8657

Sorry

This is all to do with trying to turn a clean-cut pop pixie into a badass rocker and instead making him look teenaged, sad, and faintly ridiculous. In a move doubtless dreamed up by his agent, this day in 2014 Justin Bieber was questioned, note questioned not arrested, for throwing eggs at his neighbour’s house in Calabasas, California. The Sunshine State’s finest managed to rustle up 12 police cars and a detective named Dave Thompson to investigate the dastardly crime. Charges were not made and plenty of egg on the faces of the neighbour, the police and of course JB.

You gotta go and get angry at all of my honesty
You know I try, but I don’t do too well with apologies
I hope I don’t run out of time, could someone call a referee?
‘Cause I just need one more shot at forgiveness

I know you know that I made those mistakes maybe once or twice
By once or twice I mean maybe a couple a hundred times
So let me, oh let me redeem, oh redeem, oh myself tonight
‘Cause I just need one more shot at second chances

Yeah, is it too late now to say sorry?
‘Cause I’m missing more than just your body
Is it too late now to say sorry?
Yeah, I know that I let you down
Is it too late to say I’m sorry now?

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter