Clarity
The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday ended speculation on the fate of data produced during the recent US government shutdown. As a result of the inability to collect key household data, notably on unemployment, it has announced that there will not be an October jobs report. Moreover, what little data that was collected in October will be rolled into an extraordinary November publication to be released in December. Economists will no doubt be scratching their heads as to how this may disturb economic models. What will be concerning traders somewhat more will be that, as a result of these ad hoc changes, the publication date for December has been shifted.
Critically for markets, this new publication date is after the Fed’s December meeting. The new date for the release of the November jobs report is December 16th. This means that the Fed is certain to still be flying blind at its decision day on December 10th. As a reminder, US inflation remains elevated and economic growth, although rhetorically cautioned, likely remains sufficiently robust within the data to justify benchmark rates where they stand today within their 3.75-4% band. It was a weak labour market in the US which was the key rationale for those voices calling for further rate cuts this year.
As of yesterday evening, there remained just 6-basis points of implied easing for the December meeting. As a reminder, the September payrolls data is expected to be released today. Barring any great deviation from the expectation of 50 thousand jobs having been added to the US economy the month before last, the potency of this data release may be limited due to its untimely release. The removal of the prospect of a December rate cut may help the US Dollar to continue its consolidation into year end with Fed minutes last night also contributing to the narrative of a Fed that is content with rates where they stand.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – A short lived short squeeze?
Charles Porter
Tue 9 Dec 2025
A short lived short squeeze? Sterling is undoubtedly benefitting from a short squeeze. Traders on net had increased positions that benefit from Sterling’s demise leading into the budget. Depending upon the participant’s persuasion, that could have meant gaining an outright short exposure to the currency or, in a more mild form, trimming any or all […]
Daily Brief – But does it mean anything for FX?
Charles Porter
Tue 6 Jan 2026
But does it mean anything for FX? The story of the week also therefore makes it the story of the year so far. The United States’ capture of Venezuelan President Maduro is the hot topic, but does it hold any material impact to markets? Well, there was certainly some significant moves in FX during yesterday’s […]
Daily Brief – Sterling slides
Charles Porter
Thu 18 Dec 2025
Sterling slides Sterling took a leg lower ahead of the European open yesterday. Despite some tentative signs of recovery, GBP was still unable to claw back losses incurred during yesterday’s session. Before we cover the cause and implications of yesterday’s stumble amongst GBP crosses, let’s look at why the Pound was set up for a […]
