Daily Brief – Clacton and UK politics

Clacton and UK politics

With only 3 days to go, the result of the Clacton by-election is neither in doubt nor the point – Nigel Farage on 73% will romp home well ahead of Count Binface (20%). Some irritation at the GBP 350K of a pointless by-election to diffuse interest away from the tangled web that is Reform’s financial backing, but overall, the people of Clacton are backing Nigel Farage as “being no more corrupt than any other politician” in the words of one voter. The point that is much more interesting is given the glide path towards the next General Election by latest July 9 2029 is whether the Conservatives, Reform and Restore can manage to bury the collective hatchet not in each other but rather to arrive at a right-wing alliance. Bringing that off would achieve victory but failing to do so will see a left-wing coalition of some sort. It’s early days but the most cheering aspect of all this is the implosion of the Green Party currently slumped at 7% and its less than Green leadership.

GBP/USD 1.3491.

US Employment

As ever it is the way that you tell ‘em when it comes to the latest US jobs figures that came out on Friday: versus the expected increase by the markets of 100,000 jobs, there was a drop in employment of 23,000 jobs in July and a downward revision of 103,000 in May and June. That was enough to send the USD lower, the Pound up and cause concern about the health of the US employment market. It did not however stop the White House fielding their spokesman, Kush Desai who neatly swerved the actuality and said that manufacturing and construction jobs had risen by 5,000 and 22,000 respectively while noting that government payrolls continue to shrink which is of course the Administration’s agenda.

EUR/USD 1.1559.

Global Food Prices

Ukraine + Iran + Heatwaves = Higher Food Prices. It may sound familiar, but people everywhere have been becoming gradually more aware that their weekly food shop is costing them more. According to the UN’s FAO or the Food and Agriculture Organization, prices for food have reached their highest levels since 2023 led by cereals, sugar and vegetable oil. For example, while wheat is up 5.8%, maize and corn are up just under 4%. A further threat to both prices and supply is El Niño which is predicted to bring the strongest heat for 70 years. Central Bankers on inflation watch will be watching this index even more carefully at this point in 2026.

EUR/JPY 182.38.

UK Private Education

Since the imposition of VAT on private school fees in a not even faintly disguised politics of envy move by the UK’s Labour Government, there are 33,000 fewer private school pupils or 5.6% versus a decline of 1.6% in state school education. 30 years ago when I approached the private schools that my children attended and requested meetings with the bursars to talk about what was on offer as fee packages, I was given short shrift accompanied by a faint but clearly discernible sneer. Those same bursars or more likely their successors are now being forced to sharpen their pencils as they are approached by collectives-groups of 4 or 5 families with say 12 children between them who are asking for group packages. Other offers are based around fixed prices for 5 years. What bargain hunting parents should be wary of given the parlous state of private school profit margins are 5 year up front deals to ease schools’ cash flows. That up front bargain for Tristram or Jemima’s education will be accompanied by credit risk on their schools.

EUR/GBP 0.8567.

The Winner Takes It All

This day in 1980 in a somewhat bittersweet moment for Swedish super pop band ABBA, they scored their 8^th number one single with this song-bitter because both couples were by that time divorced. The song featured on their album Super Trouper which given the state of their recent breakups and fractured relationships was an entirely apposite title if an aspirational reminder to them all: the show must go on.

I don’t wanna talk
About things we’ve gone through
Though it’s hurting me
Now, it’s history

I’ve played all my cards
And that’s what you’ve done too
Nothing more to say
No more ace to play

The winner takes it all
The loser standing small
Beside the victory
That’s her destiny

I was in your arms
Thinking I belonged there
I figured it made sense
Building me a fence

Building me a home
Thinking I’d be strong there

But I was a fool
Playing by the rules

The gods may throw a dice
Their minds as cold as ice
And someone way down here
Loses someone dear

The winner takes it all (takes it all)
The loser has to fall (has to fall)
It’s simple, and it’s plain (yes, it’s plain)
Why should I complain? (Why complain?)

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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