Daily Brief – British pound

British pound

Sterling finds itself in the limelight and trading at its recent highs as somewhat improbably a couple of bolder market commentators have suggested the UK will benefit as a result of the disaffection with the USA and the USD at present. Those commentators have obviously not been following the commentary about UK Chancellor Reeves’ running out of road and being forced into an increasingly tenuous position given her lack of economic success. Tax rises in the face of a set of economic releases, which the Chancellor dubbed “disappointing” cannot be ruled out it turns out by… her.

GBP/USD 1.3610.

Fuel Smuggling

A few years ago at the time of Al Qaeda and then ISIS, illegal sanctions busting fuel made its way from Iraq to the West despite efforts to stop it which spectacularly failed. That resulted in the funding of terrorist activity and well documented atrocities. While that doubtless still continues, the action on this front has now shifted to the USA. Surely not? An excellent in depth piece in the Financial Times earlier this week reported on the flow of diesel, petrol and oil from Texas to Mexico. As much as 25% of Mexico’s oil needs are thought to be met by shipping tankers from ports in Texas to Mexico where it is pumped direct from the ships into trucks so hardly either de minimis an activity or a well kept secret. That illegal activity is worth up to USD 20 billion per annum and goes a long way to explain US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks about his determination to stop it which were difficult previously to understand.

EUR/USD 1.1593.

Nox

Following our writing about the French love affair with sleeper trains, the rail news latest is that a Berlin based start-up named Nox plans to link 100 European cities by night trains by 2035 and passengers will be able to travel from Barcelona to Rome to Stockholm to Warsaw among others for the same price or better than the cost of a plane ticket i.e. EUR 79 for a single cabin or EUR 149 for a double. The service will start in 2027 and cabins for 2 or 3 people will be available as well as food and drink and extra long beds. Nox seems to have thought of everything – let’s hope that includes funding their ambition.

EUR/GBP 0.8513.

Dubai Chocolate

Tempted to jump on to this bandwagon which has meant that UK supermarkets have imposed individual purchase limits? The short answer is that the TikTok inspired craze for Dubai chocolate should be questioned as a minimum or better completely avoided. Dubai chocolate contains ingredients that would not be approved elsewhere is the most polite way to put it. Sticking to more conventional brands would seem the best option. Mars bar anyone?

EUR/JPY 1.6622.

Achy Breaky Heart

Billy Ray Cyrus spent 17 weeks at the very top of the album charts in 1992 with Some Gave All and part of that success was attributable to this song which wormed its way into the consciousness of the world at that time and kicked off the album’s number one spot this day in 1992.

You can tell the world you never was my girl
You can burn my clothes up when I’m gone
Or you can tell your friends just what a fool I’ve been
And laugh and joke about me on the phone

You can tell my arms go back to the farm
You can tell my feet to hit the floor
Or you can tell my lips to tell my fingertips
They won’t be reaching out for you no more

But don’t tell my heart, my achy breaky heart
I just don’t think he’d understand
And if you tell my heart, my achy breaky heart
He might blow up and kill this man
Ooh

You can tell your ma I moved to Arkansas
Or you can tell your dog to bite my leg
Or tell your brother Cliff who’s fist can tell my lips
He never really liked me anyway

Or tell your Aunt Louise, tell anything you please
Myself already knows I’m not okay
Or you can tell my eyes to watch out for my mind
It might be walking out on me one-day

But don’t tell my heart, my achy breaky heart
I just don’t think he’d understand
And if you tell my heart, my achy breaky heart
He might blow up and kill this man
Ooh

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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