SGM-FX insights

Short covering   Evidence from the CME provides an interesting qualification to the CFTC positioning data that GBP investors have been watching closely. For many years now, markets have held a net short position on GBP, fluctuating from more neutral grounds through to a heavy focus upon achieving selling conviction behind the Pound at times. […]

The Hunt is on: UK Budget and the Global Population   The Autumn budget is drawing closer with Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer within Rishi Sunak’s government, due to announce the measures to the House of Commons on Thursday. Sterling had a rocky start to the week yesterday with major crosses falling as the […]

Yields tumble as fiscal progress is claimed   Having taken immediate action to reverse those promised taxation adjustments that had not yet taken effect or had not yet been passed by Parliament, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt still faces a huge challenge in restoring confidence to UK public finances. Measures that have been reversed include the cut […]

Budget delay   Following Rishi Sunak’s first full day in office yesterday there is an emerging feeling of relative calm within UK assets. The bond market appears to have been the driver of many wider asset flows with global yields falling as debt investor confidence begins to return. In the UK, yields, particularly on very […]

Second time lucky Sunak   It may be second time lucky for incoming Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, but the wait from his first attempt wasn’t too long to endure. Following the withdrawal of leadership race competitor, Penny Mordaunt, he will be appointed as the UK’s youngest modern era PM by King Charles later today. As […]

A new stability?   Four chancellors in four months. Even if you had not been paying attention to the comings and goings of UK politics, that statistic should ring alarm bells. The UK gained its fourth chancellor in as many months last week in the form of Jeremy Hunt following the ousting of Kwasi Kwarteng […]

Budget Count Down   The Chancellor has brought forward the date upon which he will announce his new budget plan. Now apparently taking a less devolved approach from his previous ‘markets will be markets’ sentiment, the change of date was justified to give some certainty with respect to fiscal policy during this period of turmoil. […]

This lady is for turning   Yesterday the government made a U-turn on some of the headline taxation policies announced during the mini budget late last month. The focus of the rollback was on the 45% additional taxation rate recently announced by the Chancellor to be on the chopping block from April next year. The […]

Tug of War   There is a rather small but welcoming green just outside of the City Hall building on the South Bank of London, just west of Tower Bridge. Many people will frequent the green for the spectacular view of the Tower of London and the City of London on the far side of […]

Another week, another level   We discussed the implied yield curve last week with a promise to take a look back at how the market pricing has evolved in subsequent trading sessions. There was particular note taken of the potential impact that the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday could provide to the market and […]

Where are UK interest rates going?   The bank holiday weekend continued to provide reason for markets to price a runaway Bank of England. Come market open on Tuesday, the positioning calling for an over-sized hike from the central bank grew, with rate expectations advancing across the curve. As well as developing interest rate expectations […]

A big week   Following this heading I should probably note that the adjectives ‘big’ and ‘good’ might perhaps be more separated in our minds by the time Friday’s market close passes. A Bank of England decision scheduled for last week was postponed whilst the country was in mourning. It is now due to take […]