SGM-FX insights

Australia Falling inflation, sluggish economic growth, a strong currency, lower living standards and low productivity would normally easily add up to an interest rate cut by the central bank: not in Australia where it was widely expected that yesterday would indeed see a rate cut. That is because the Reserve Bank of Australia is worried […]

Poland June 2025 will go down as a milestone for the energy sector in Poland as it was the first month that renewable energy overtook fossil fuels as a proportion of Poland’s total energy requirements. Poland is one of the highest emitting countries only behind China, Kuwait, South Africa, and Kazakhstan and despite coal consumption […]

Sterling No sooner had the financial press written that Sterling was on the skids due to the Chancellor being on the way out, than PM Starmer woke up to the need for some TLC for his beleaguered Chancellor and executed a handbrake turn to administer some gruesome bedside cheer to the apparently on life support […]

EU Inflation With the ECB annual symposium meeting in sunny Sintra, Portugal, inflation is very much on President Lagarde’s mind ; that is because it is showing signs of rising with the monthly inflation rate showing an increase of 0.3% and that presages a break above the target 2% rate just as she and her colleagues […]

Gold With Gold accounting for the second highest proportion of Central Bank reserves after the USD and the mood music shifting to it assuming a greater influence on future reserves management, it is worth looking at the numbers behind that. In the 1960s, Central Banks held the highest amount historically of 38,000 tons of gold. […]

US Dollar Markets not liking POTUS pontificating on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy on Wednesday, and less still on his view about the competence or otherwise of Chairman Powell. Given the past few weeks, the betting is that Powell’s time is over either being replaced or having a Trump nominee second guessing him but […]

NATO This week sees the 32 member countries of NATO convening in The Hague for the annual meeting which this time unsurprisingly is going to attract rather more in the way of news coverage than it has in previous years. The ECFR or the European Council of Foreign Relations has just completed a poll of […]

Markets Once again, markets were wrong footed over the weekend by POTUS, who had stated that he would decide in 2 weeks whether to bomb Iran. That 2 weeks turned out to be 2 days. With Iran talking to Europe’s leaders over the weekend in Geneva, Switzerland markets relaxed and in particular the oil price […]

Bank of England As expected, the Monetary Policy committee voted 6:3 to leave rates unchanged – for the avoidance of doubt that sizeable bloc of 3 voted to cut interest rates yesterday. That split reflects the dilemma faced by the Committee and the UK perfectly: growth is sluggish after a fairly decent 0.7% uptick in […]

US Dollar All the talk of the USD having had its day may be gaining in credence every day that goes by with the POTUS and his Administration seemingly determined to dismantle the post WW2 global currency order and depreciate the USD, but most people operate in a much shorter timeframe than the time it […]

Oil Supply With Friday’s rocketing up in the oil price of 12% to $78, the question is whether that is it and we have just seen a re-set or whether this is the first staging post in a much larger increase. That, of course, depends on the unfolding Israel-Iran attacks and whether that conflict spreads […]

British pound Sterling finds itself in the limelight and trading at its recent highs as somewhat improbably a couple of bolder market commentators have suggested the UK will benefit as a result of the disaffection with the USA and the USD at present. Those commentators have obviously not been following the commentary about UK Chancellor […]