SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – European Central Bank 

Morning Brief – European Central Bank 

Humphrey Percy Fri 5 May 2023

European Central Bank  Yesterday the ECB duly raised its interest rates by 25bps. President Lagarde maintained that the ECB was on a journey and had not yet arrived-some would, given that ECB inflation is not dropping and is stuck at 6.9%, interpret that analogy as being their firm intention to continue to raise rates given […]

Morning Brief – US Government Default on June 1 without a hike in the Debt Ceiling 

Morning Brief – US Government Default on June 1 without a hike in the Debt Ceiling 

Humphrey Percy Wed 3 May 2023

US Government Default on June 1 without a hike in the Debt Ceiling  Markets (so far) are remarkably sanguine about this appalling scenario for the US and therefore the global economy. President Biden and the Republican House Speaker have not discussed this issue since February-and the Speaker is currently in Jerusalem so unable to meet […]

Morning Brief – Time to double down?

Morning Brief – Time to double down?

Charles Porter Thu 27 Apr 2023

Time to double down? A rate hike at the ECB next week looks like a foregone conclusion. The only question remaining is whether the bank decides to opt for a 25 or 50 basis point adjustment to its key monetary policy facilities. There is likely to be increased Euro volatility moving into the event. However, […]

Morning Brief – They’re all at it

Morning Brief – They’re all at it

Charles Porter Tue 4 Apr 2023

They’re all at it We have been used to the protagonist of central bank hawkishness being the United States. With this week ahead of Easter only a day or so old, it is clear that the narrative so far has evolved to focus upon the rest of the world. So far this week we have […]

Morning Brief – European Gas Prices

Morning Brief – European Gas Prices

Humphrey Percy Fri 31 Mar 2023

European Gas Prices Six long months ago the cost per MegaWatt hour of European gas was EUR175. It now stands at EUR 44. Good news but core inflation in the EU still remains stubbornly high.  German inflation for example stands at approximately 7% which is not what was predicted by the ECB and not the […]

Morning Brief – Rebalancing

Morning Brief – Rebalancing

Charles Porter Tue 28 Mar 2023

Rebalancing Month end, quarter end and financial year end for many UK companies is drawing closer. The financial flows that the conclusion of such periods can bring to markets can create significant price instability. More often than not, at least in recent history, those flows have delivered a premium to USD. However, there is a […]

Morning Brief – European Central Bank

Morning Brief – European Central Bank

Humphrey Percy Fri 17 Mar 2023

European Central Bank Doubtless the ECB wished that their awaited meeting and press conference had not been scheduled to take place yesterday given the fragile state of global markets. Although an improvement on the febrile atmosphere earlier in the week following the affirmative and decisive action from the Swiss National Bank in providing a USD […]

Morning Brief – US Employment

Morning Brief – US Employment

Humphrey Percy Mon 6 Mar 2023

US Employment Fasten your seatbelts for a big week on the US jobs front. After 517,000 new jobs were created in January, the expectation is for February to reflect growth in jobs but much less-200,000 in fact. At present US unemployment is at its lowest level since 1969 so the argument that the Federal Reserve […]

Morning Brief – Blinkers

Morning Brief – Blinkers

Charles Porter Thu 2 Feb 2023

Blinkers Today is the day that the ECB and Bank of England meet. Spreads in the spot, forward and options markets are all reflecting a degree of uncertainty and exhibiting volatility already. As we have mentioned, both central banks are widely expected to pursue a 50-basis point hike but the higher conviction call within these […]

Morning Brief – Germany

Morning Brief – Germany

SGM-FX Wed 31 Aug 2022

Germany   With the increasingly uncomfortable news for Germany that German inflation is running at almost a 50 year high at 8.8%, it is becoming clear that calls for a modest rise in Euro interest rates in September are not going to cut it for the more hawkish Northern European members of the ECB who […]

Morning Brief – UK Retail Sales

Morning Brief – UK Retail Sales

SGM-FX Wed 10 Aug 2022

UK Retail Sales   Up 2.3% in July breaking the previous 3 month down trend due to purchases of summer clothes, picnic equipment and electric fans to cool consumers down. The last category could usefully be directed towards inflation which now stands at 9.4%. GBP/USD 1.2110.   Spain   As some of our readers will […]

Morning Brief – A little sensitive

Morning Brief – A little sensitive

SGM-FX Tue 26 Jul 2022

A little sensitive   Last week saw some of the most volatile conditions for the Euro we’ve seen in a long time. During the stronger than expected interest rate hike announced on Thursday the Euro spiked reclaiming recently lost ground versus the US Dollar. However, the fun didn’t last long. During the press conference the […]

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