SGM-FX insights

Unfortunate That was how the Indian Foreign Ministry described POTUS’ extra 25% tariffs on Indian goods exported to the USA as a blunt instrument to prevent India buying Russian oil which indirectly funds the war in Ukraine. India is more than unlikely to find a ready replacement for the 2 million barrels of oil that […]

Running out of time Markets are likely to shift their focus back to the conflict in Ukraine caused by the Russian invasion. Ending the conflict between these two nations had been one of Trump’s election pledges and one which he scorned his predecessor for allowing to take place. With seemingly no progress made towards a […]

EU Tariffs Most people who followed the July 27 Turnberry meeting between POTUS and EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen thought that despite grumbling from Germany, France, and Greece, and subject to the EU Parliament ratifying the 15% US tariff rate that Ursula shook hands on, that was it. Not at all. First, there […]

Warning signals Admonitions of an equity market correction continue to be unheeded by major benchmarks. A stock market sell-off on Friday as a result of weak non-farm payroll data was met with a familiar buy the dip approach yesterday. Friday’s jobs numbers showed just 73,000 jobs added to the US economy versus the 110,000 forecasted. […]

Holcim The giant Swiss cement making company is the latest example of how failing to hedge or protect earnings from adverse exchange rate movements can hurt even the largest and most sophisticated international companies as well as those in the SME sector which operate on narrower profit margins. In Q2, Holcim saw a rise in […]

CBDCs Coming to your High Street soon: Central Bank Digital Currencies. The largest due to launch next year is the digital Euro. The Bank of England is still looking into it. Given that we have bank transfers, electronic banking, credit and debit cards and multiple payment cards the question is what will be the plus […]

Pushing back The Federal Reserve delivered its latest monetary policy decision yesterday evening. As was widely expected, the Fed kept rates on hold in their current band of 4.25-4.5%. This does not mean that there were not any fireworks during the publication and subsequent press conference. There were two dissenting votes to the decision to […]

Oil At a smidge below USD70, Brent oil rose sharply at the beginning of the week on the back of two principal factors: firstly, the EU committing to buy USD 750 billion of energy products from the USA as part of the 15% tariff trade deal; secondly, POTUS’ 50 day ultimatum to President Putin to […]

A deal on trade? On Sunday, a deal was agreed between the EU and US on trade. This has been presented as both sides seeking to avoid the uncertainty of the tariff deadline approaching this Friday. However, a deal in the context of the EU is never quite so simple. An audience with Ursula von […]

Greek Water Greek PM Mitsotakis is taking action on Greece’s problem of widespread water shortages brought on by climate change and increasing demand for what is an increasingly scarce water supply exacerbated by drought. A 5 pronged nationwide plan to tackle the crisis which has evidenced itself with forest fires and arid landscapes is being […]

EU Interest Rates As expected the ECB held interest rates yesterday. Unsurprising, given the August 1 deadline on the US tariffs that might see a punitive tariff rate of 30% on the EU, although talks are meant to be getting closer to a 15% rate and in sight of the finishing tape. That means that […]

Deals, deals and nearly deals Risk assets have received a boost as trade deals cross or approach the finish line ahead of next week’s August 1st deadline. First in yesterday’s session was the announcement of a deal between Japan and the US. This deal had proved elusive for a while and news of its completion […]